Masks of the Red (Cross) Death

You remember the Edgar Allan Poe story – The Masque of the Red Death

Prospero and 1,000 other nobles have taken refuge in this walled abbey to escape the Red Death, a terrible plague with gruesome symptoms that has swept over the land. Victims are overcome by “sharp pains”, “sudden dizziness”, and “profuse bleeding at the pores“, and die within half an hour. Prospero and his court are indifferent to the sufferings of the population at large; they intend to await the end of the plague in luxury and safety behind the walls of their secure refuge, having welded the doors shut.

As noted yesterday, the Chinese Red Cross has come in for some special attention in social media.  Per reports, the Chinese Red Cross has collected millions of dollars in cash and equipment to assist in the coronavirus campaign.  The money should be used to buy supplies for hospitals. The supplies should get to hospitals without delay.  As you know, masks, gowns, hazardous clothing and medicines have been in desperately short supply throughout Hubei.  But in keeping with suspicions of the last decade, the Chinese Red Cross has not been forthcoming in its accounting for donations and particularly in its distribution of needed supplies to hospitals.

The Red Cross Society of China is not affiliated with the International Red Cross.  It has experienced heavy criticism, and donations have dwindled, since exposes related to the 2013 Sichuan earthquake relief and a 2011 scandal involving a woman flaunting her fabulous car, clothes, and lifestyle who also claimed to be a Red Cross director.  The Atlantic has a brief review of the problems, from 2013.  It appears that danwei donations, some government employee donations, and even student donations, were required to go to the Chinese Red Cross, rather than another non-profit.  Many Chinese openly question whether the Red Cross leaders divert money for their own purposes. 

That was then, and this is 2020. Bureaucratic delays can happen in any situation. Certainly, supplies should be accounted for.  But it appears that logistics for distribution of masks and gowns has gone seriously wrong, with no improvement over past operations. 

Many tons of supplies have been collected from throughout China and even from overseas packages of masks and gowns. The Red Cross initially said it would send supplies directly to hospitals. When the Red Cross only sent two trucks to deliver tons and tons of supplies throughout Wuhan – a city the size of all of northeastern Illinois – the bottleneck was obvious – and potentially deadly.  When the hospitals complained, the Red Cross told the hospitals to come pick up supplies themselves.  The hospitals were happy to dispatch people to do so.

When the dispatch people arrived at Red Cross headquarters, they still could not pick up supplies, because the Red Cross wasn’t ready.  Hospital staff were told to come back the next day – while supplies sat in the warehouse behind them. 

They still could not get supplies the next day, because the Red Cross demanded that hospitals produce a sort of introduction letter in order to obtain supplies.  This appears to be a sort of holdover from 30 years ago, when each danwei had to produce evidence of need and appropriate guanxi to get supplies without exchange of cash. 

At the top level hospital in Wuhan, doctors and nurses resorted to making their own masks from plastic bags and filter paper, and soliciting donations directly from the public instead of going through the government-approved Red Cross.  As punishment, this leading hospital received supplies of only 3,000 masks from the Red Cross.

A hospital that received 15,000 or 16,000 masks is not a hospital at all, but a private fertility clinic, with no fever department at all.  Managers of the clinic said they were donating the masks to people in the neighborhood, rather than the supplies going to the hospitals. One questions whether the masks were given away or sold. There is a related post at u/cheesyramennoddle on reddit, with different numbers. 

Dozens of Chinese volunteered to help the Red Cross in distribution of supplies. The wechat stories are about volunteers who stopped showing up, because of the inability of the Red Cross to make any effective use of their time. 

For donors looking to donate supplies directly, the Red Cross is charging donors a 6 to 8 percent cash fee to take the donations.  Management of the work has a cost, and non-profits need to get those funds somewhere.  Still, it seems a bit … unseemly to charge donors for making a donation. 

There are other avenues for donations of supplies.  The Chinese Charity Federation ci shan zhong wei is a nationwide organization for receipt of donations.  There are provincial and city branches all over China.

An overseas hai wai Chinese tells the story of attempting to donate masks, gowns, gloves, and goggles to Hubei, or Wuhan, or directly to the hospitals through the Charity Federation.  Over the span of about a week, he had to obtain about a dozen different forms for import of the goods, including a manufacturing license agreement MLA, a registration certificate for medical devices, and a report for detecting and analyzing – test report (sort of an FDA report) – these in addition to the normal import forms – logistics company receipts, name of a recipient at the hospital, name of the exporting company (there was no company, only an individual).  One probably can’t expect the Charity Federation to be up to speed on emergency donations from abroad, but his story tells of the disdain that local organizations seemed to have for an attempt to donate necessary emergency supplies. As in always the case in China, no one would volunteer to tell him what other forms might also be needed – in any case, it was likely that no one knew. He finally had to resort to using very special guanxi from Beijing to get approvals for import.  In the meantime, the Beijing, Hubei, and Wuhan branches of the Charity Federation were passing the buck among each other over whose stamp should be on the goods in order to receive them.  In addition, the provincial and city health bureaus were also demanding stamps before goods could be shipped from Shanghai port.  The Chinese donor in America finally did get his donations released and shipped, but there was quite clearly no emergency on the receiving end.  His comment was that it would be easier to ship illegal drugs into China than emergency medical supplies. 

Some supplies from abroad did get in before air flights were shut down.  Six deliveries from Japan, South Korea, and Britain did get through. According to my information, that included 4.82 million yuan worth of goods – 691,000 masks, 106,000 gowns, 50,700 pair of gloves, and 5000 pairs of protection goggles.    

The Red Cross logistics bottleneck has been the source of many angry postings from Chinese online. A CCTV journalist went to interview people at the Red Cross, but was turned away. At the same time, hospital staff were waiting in line with their introduction letters to get supplies from the Red Cross warehouse.  In the parking lot, leaving the Red Cross warehouse,  the journalist watched a driver with a Wuhan government license plate go into the warehouse and emerge with boxes of masks.  “For the leaders,” is what he told the journalist and the waiting hospital staff.  Masks of the Red (Cross) death, indeed. 

There is plenty of dishonor to go around in this crisis, but one sort of expects the Red Cross, even the Chinese government-affiliated Red Cross, to operate at a somewhat higher plane. That is not the on-the-ground experience right now. The Charity Federation does not emerge looking any better.  The government officials do have their masks, though, so perhaps the emergency is really over. 

Further to “abandon all hope …”

“Abandon all hope” is how I titled a recent post on the response of Wuhan people to the virus.  The title was based on the stories I was hearing, both live and through wechat groups.

Now, this is the language Chinese are themselves using to describe their situation.  When people lose hope, they lose sense of moral responsibility.  Now, there are stories of people in hospitals attacking doctors, ripping their gowns and facemasks, not to use themselves.  It is what one can do when nothing matters anymore. “If I am going to die, you will die with me.” From the London Daily Mail, video of the crowd in hospital corridors –  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7921709/Shocking-footage-shows-hospital-China-flooded-hundreds-patients-amid-coronavirus-outbreak.html#v-6237968338604408872

There are stories of delivery boys, delivering food to communities (since residents cannot go out or are too afraid to go out), and residents tear the face mask from the boy and spit in his face, to transfer the virus.

In the historical face of privation, corruption, and venality, many Chinese maintain a stoicism about leaders – leaders are doing the best they can, we must think of the pressure they are under.  A good deal of that allowance for error seems to be ended now.  A friend of a friend, whose demeanor was always described as genial and submissive, now has called for leaders to be killed.  Li Keqiang came to Wuhan a few days ago, ostensibly to encourage locals to keep up the good fight.  Li went to the site of the new field hospitals being built in Wuhan, but – per my wechat posts – did not go to any of the hospitals where hundreds still stand in line, doctors and nurses lack masks and gowns, people seeking care get shuffled from hospital to hospital with no available transportation (taxis shut down or refuse to take patients, private cars not available, buses shut down).  Leaders, even national leaders, are now described as animals.  They have no concern for ordinary Chinese.  Even now, the mayor and governor have to read from a script to express their sympathies.  They are most certainly not of the people, nor are they serving them.

Most of this information is coming to me through wechat groups.  I have no first hand knowledge – which in China would not qualify me to say anything at all (no one should comment on anything without knowing all the facts).  But the people doing these posts are friends of mine who are smart, thoughtful, generally loyal, and most certainly not given to extremes in typing.  These friends now have some family members who are sick, some friends who have died.  The circle enlarges even as it closes in.

Per their posts – the virus was identified by the Wuhan Center for Disease Control in early to mid-December.  This government body is a branch of the national CDC, and the Wuhan people report only to the central government CDC.  The Wuhan mayor, the Hubei governor, the party leaders were not part of the chain of authority at that point.  The central government CDC took the samples and data, analyzed it, and the researchers were able to write eight journal articles, submitted to top medical journals in China and one in Britain, before the end of the year.  By doing so, the scientists would gain prestige, promotions, and money.  It is an extreme sign of systemic corruption that scientists compete for salary raises by publishing, and in so doing ignore the people whom they are supposed to serve.  It is reported that the head of the central government CDC is not a medical doctor, but a veterinarian – such is the meritocracy within CCP.  The Wuhan leaders were not informed of the virus, or its spread, until the middle of January, several weeks to a month after the virus was identified in Beijing.  That may be a reason that the Hubei and Wuhan leaders have not been asked to resign – perhaps they truly did not know.

You have seen the Wuhan pictures with no one on the streets.  People are holed up in their apartments, either sick, taking care of someone who is sick, or afraid to go out.  People will have no contact with each other.  Many are isolated, alone, some sick.  Some food deliveries get made, but boxes are left outside a door.  Some wealthy people have tried to stay in hotels, in Wuhan or elsewhere, but the hotels will not take them if they are from Hubei. Some people have stopped wearing masks, even if they are sick, out of despair. One contact reports being at home, and the only vehicles he sees, day after day, are ambulances and funeral cars, come to take bodies. Many sicknesses and deaths are not reported as virus related, because the final diagnosis was never made.  Human contact is dangerous.  This is The Plague.  Read the plot summary, if you don’t remember details of the book.

Medical personnel are breaking down. In many cases, they cannot go home, they cannot leave the hospital.  They are targets even as they try to save lives. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7934751/Shocking-footage-shows-medic-Wuhan-crying-screaming-anymore.html#v-4700359319812852581

The Chinese Red Cross has come in for harsh analysis.  You remember the photo from 2011 of guo meimei, identified as the general manager of the Chinese Red Cross.  She was lounging in front of her very expensive sports car, dressed quite stylishly.  Since then, many Chinese do not want to donate money to the Red Cross, and that continues even today.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/07/06/china.redcross/index.html

Lots of donations are going to a charity run by Han Hong, a famous singer who donates much of her income to social causes in China.  She is trusted, when so much of the government is not.

While the World Health Organization (WHO) has praised China for learning so much from the SARS epidemic in Beijing in 2003, Wuhan people don’t see the learning.  They say Hu Jintao would not have allowed such delay and suffering.  Now, all officials are afraid of Xi Jinping, no one will report outside of their strict authority, and media, once beginning to open to criticism and analysis, is shut down.  Mr. Xi reminded all media several years ago that they work for him.

WHO has finally declared the coronavirus a world health emergency.  WHO praised China for its prompt response in providing information to WHO – in mid-December – of the identity of the virus. WHO has seemed reluctant to make this declaration, perhaps out of fear of offending China, despite the deplorable lack of response within China that has allowed the virus to spread so far and so fast.  This international and irrational fear of “hurting the feelings of the Chinese people,” as CCP so often proclaims, must cease. When the tide goes out, as they say, we see who is swimming naked.  The government has left the Chinese people naked and cold, and sick and dying.  The truth will out – not always, and not always very fast.  But here we see power in its Lord Acton transform.  Mr. Xi has been proclaimed personally the core of CCP, and CCP must lead every industry, every aspect of Chinese life. He has absolute power.  It is as if loyal Party members must proclaim, we have no king but Caesar.

In Chinese dynastic mythology, a natural disaster foretells the fall of a dynasty.  Heaven is not pleased with performance, and Heaven hears as the people hear, sees as the people see.  Xi Jinping has amassed more power than any leader since Mao.  He has personalized power, centralized, and put himself and CCP at the core of all in Chinese society.  Now, Mr. Xi should be worried. Lord Acton and Heaven must be in his mind, because even Mr. Xi knows that pride goeth before a fall, and the coronavirus can infect even those who never get sick.

Breaking – Coronavirus information now under control Tuesday, January 28 10:00 AM

Update at January 30


– 
regarding the doctor who was disciplined for sharing information on the virus with his wechat group – there are now eight doctors in Wuhan who have been so disciplined.  In at least one case, the information sharing was among a wechat group of doctors involved in treating the infection.  You know the phrase, “No good deed goes unpunished.”  No doubt these doctors -involved as they were in fighting this disease, without break for days – forgot the cardinal rule I mentioned below in the original post – “no one should comment without knowing all the facts.”  Only the government can know all the facts. 

A piece of good news, though.  The director of the local health commission in Huanggang, a city in eastern Hubei province, has been fired.  This director was being interviewed by a journalist, who asked a series of questions along the lines of how many infections there are in Huanggang, how many hospital beds there are, what shortages of supplies there are.  To all questions, the director answered, “I don’t know.”  Answers to all these questions would be part of her portfolio, and she demonstrated incompetence, rather forcefully.  Perhaps she was just waiting for all the facts. 

Breaking – Coronavirus information now under control   Tuesday, January 28  10:00 AM

 From three days ago –

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/25/c_138733715.htm

 According to the meeting, Xi has been paying very close attention to the outbreak as he held multiple meetings, heard many reports and made important instructions on the matter, demanding Party committees and governments at all levels and related departments to put people’s life and health as the top priority.

From yesterday –

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/27/c_138737735.htm

… Li, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and head of a leading group of the CPC Central Committee on the prevention and control of the novel coronavirus outbreak, extended regards to the medical workers at the frontline on behalf of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council.

In a wechat post from about a week ago, now deleted, a doctor from one of the four leading Wuhan hospitals let members of his group know of the dangers of the virus. The doctor was treating virus patients, and presumably was one of those who were not allowed to leave the hospital, or were unable to leave without transportation.  In his private wechat group, he told people to be careful, not go into closed public areas and wear a mask.  This was about a week ago, before the central government acknowledged the existence of the virus.

Ever watchful wechat censors found the post and deleted it.  Also deleted now, as of a couple of hours ago, is a journalist’s story about the deletion and the fate of the doctor.  He was called into a meeting at the hospital, reprimanded and told to never disclose information about the spread of the disease.

At 1:30 in the morning, the doctor was called by the police, and told to report to the local police station, where he was told to write a confession about his transgressions – no doubt, something along the lines of the standard Chinese crime of “causing trouble.”  He wrote, and signed, and was warned to never do such a thing again.

The doctor is now in the hospital, this time sick with the virus.  His parents are now sick as well, along with his pregnant wife.  He cannot be arrested right now, since he is sick.  No doubt there will be plenty of news coverage of his fate when he is out of the hospital.

Mr. Xi should be pleased.  The people’s life and health are being protected from direct, on the ground information that might endanger people’s sense of trust in the government. And Mr. Li should be please as well. This particular medical worker has been highly regarded by the hospital administrators, the local health bureau, and the police.

There is a self-serving CCP meme about public information that has circulated for decades in China – “no one should comment without knowing all the facts.”  Since no one can ever know all the facts about anything, this serves as a warning for people to keep their mouths shut.  There are Chinese who refuse to respect this warning.  But “serving the people,” another CCP meme, is apparently not what is wanted by the authorities.  And we see the absolute value in the US of whistle-blower laws.

Breaking – Coronavirus information now under control Tuesday, January 28 10:00 AM

From three days ago –

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/25/c_138733715.htm

 According to the meeting, Xi has been paying very close attention to the outbreak as he held multiple meetings, heard many reports and made important instructions on the matter, demanding Party committees and governments at all levels and related departments to put people’s life and health as the top priority.

From yesterday –

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/27/c_138737735.htm

… Li, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and head of a leading group of the CPC Central Committee on the prevention and control of the novel coronavirus outbreak, extended regards to the medical workers at the frontline on behalf of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council.

In a wechat post from about a week ago, now deleted, a doctor from one of the four leading Wuhan hospitals let members of his group know of the dangers of the virus. The doctor was treating virus patients, and presumably was one of those who were not allowed to leave the hospital, or were unable to leave without transportation.  In his private wechat group, he told people to be careful, not go into closed public areas and wear a mask.  This was about a week ago, before the central government acknowledged the existence of the virus.

Ever watchful wechat censors found the post and deleted it.  Also deleted now, as of a couple of hours ago, is a journalist’s story about the deletion and the fate of the doctor.  He was called into a meeting at the hospital, reprimanded and told to never disclose information about the spread of the disease.

At 1:30 in the morning, the doctor was called by the police, and told to report to the local police station, where he was told to write a confession about his transgressions – no doubt, something along the lines of the standard Chinese crime of “causing trouble.”  He wrote, and signed, and was warned to never do such a thing again.

The doctor is now in the hospital, this time sick with the virus.  His parents are now sick as well, along with his pregnant wife.  He cannot be arrested right now, since he is sick.  No doubt there will be plenty of news coverage of his fate when he is out of the hospital.

Mr. Xi should be pleased.  The people’s life and health are being protected from direct, on the ground information that might endanger people’s sense of trust in the government. And Mr. Li should be please as well. This particular medical worker has been highly regarded by the hospital administrators, the local health bureau, and the police.

There is a self-serving CCP meme about public information that has circulated for decades in China – “no one should comment without knowing all the facts.”  Since no one can ever know all the facts about anything, this serves as a warning for people to keep their mouths shut.  There are Chinese who refuse to respect this warning.  But “serving the people,” another CCP meme, is apparently not what is wanted by the authorities.  And we see the absolute value in the US of whistle-blower laws.

Further on the six-day hospital – what Chinese are talking about

January 26, 2020  7:00 CST

Wuhan residents are cheered a little by reports that military doctors and nurses are being dispatched to Wuhan and neighboring cities.  My report is that all cities in Wuhan are now quarantined. Every province in China has cases of the coronavirus except for Tibet.

The Hubei governor has said now he feels hen tongxin,  great heart-pain, for the slow response of his government.  Wechat users are asking why he is not resigning immediately.

South China Morning Post  reports that even the CCP controlled Hubei Daily published harsh words – for a few minutes, before deleting their own work –

Doctors in Wuhan have been among those calling for health officials to be held to account and, in an unusually blunt statement on social media platform Weibo, a senior reporter from the province’s official Communist Party newspaper, Hubei Daily, said the city’s leaders should be removed “immediately”.

“Like many people, I used to believe that a temporary decision to replace leaders with those less familiar with the situation would not be good for pushing through the [antivirus] work, but based on the worsening situation that is getting increasingly severe, those currently in the role have no capability of leadership,” reporter Zhang Ouya wrote on Friday.

“For Wuhan, please change the leadership immediately,” he said in the post, which was later removed.

A doctor from one of the major Wuhan hospitals wrote that the number of cases grew dramatically after January 12 but officials refused to publish the data –

“These patients were not given proper quarantine nor medical treatment and they could travel in every corner of the city…  Later, when we warned patients and the public to wear masks and avoid crowded areas, they didn’t take it seriously and thought we were exaggerating, and even some medical staff, including surgeons didn’t believe it and were not willing to take basic precautions.”

Hospitals have put out private appeals for masks, gowns, gloves, and other supplies.  Some member of the public have responded.  There are stories of individuals volunteering to drive doctors and nurses to their homes; otherwise, they would be unable to leave the hospitals at all, where they are on 24 hour standby status. 

But let’s get some perspective on the six-day hospital story.  There are still too many Americans who will believe any story, however wild, coming out of China about size, speed, and spending.  A good example is from Next Draft, which reports that “On the outskirts of Wuhan, diggers and bulldozers have begun work to build a new 1,000-bed hospital, which is due to open within days.” No, that’s not a typo. Diggers to digs in days. (In America, it takes six weeks to get a permit to re-hang a shingle.)

Even the New York Times has repeated the story of the marvelous seven day wonder. 

A BBC News story reports –

“China has a record of getting things done fast even for monumental projects like this,” says Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Mr Huang said that engineers would be brought in from across the country in order to complete construction in time.

“The engineering work is what China is good at. They have records of building skyscrapers at speed. This is very hard for westerners to imagine. It can be done,” he added.

According to state media, the hospital will contain 1000 beds; and a second hospital is to be built, this one at the leisurely pace of two weeks.

You’ve seen the photo of the excavators urgently digging next to each other at the hospital site.  What did you not see in that photo?  Any dump trucks for the excavators to put soil in.  So what are they digging?  Moreover, in that disturbed soil, you cannot place foundations for any permanent structure in a few day period.  The settlement of foundations would be immediate, and destructive.  This is true even in China.  Remember Richard Feynman, talking about the Challenger disaster – nature cannot be fooled.  In this case, any structure would begin cracking right away, and be useless in short order. 

Let’s get a grip on this story.  Anyone who thinks that what is being produced is our mental image of a hospital needs to sit down and take a break.  This is not a two or three story facility with intricate mechanical and plumbing systems.  Call it what you will, this is on the order of a field hospital, needed to be sure, and an excellent temporary piece of a solution to the crisis, but only a temporary facility.  The model for this Wuhan field hospital is one built in Beijing during the SARS epidemic in 2003.  
 
From BBC News –  “It’s basically a quarantined hospital where they send people with infectious diseases so it has the safety and protective gear in place,” said Joan Kaufman, lecturer in global health and social medicine at Harvard Medical School.
 

China Global Television Network (CGTN) has more, referencing the Beijing field hospital built for the SARS epidemic –

Wuhan’s Huoshenshan hospital is located at the Workers’ Sanatorium away from populated areas and equipped with separated quarantine wards to minimize risks of cross-infection. Health officials overseeing the operation said the facilities can be assembled quickly using portable prefabricated components at low cost. The emphasis is on speed and functionality.

After SARS epidemic in Beijing, According to Mr Huang, the hospital was “quietly abandoned after the epidemic ended”.  

Think MASH, not Northwestern Hospital or Cedars Sinai. And that is fine, and what is needed. 

Let’s remember that in any case hospital rooms in China bear no resemblance to anything we might consider as functional in the US.  Hospital rooms in China are basically hotel rooms but with fewer accommodations. The much-needed facilities will be quarantine rooms, no doubt staffed by army doctors and nurses, and volunteers from across China.  Medicines and masks will still be in short supply, since the calls are currently for three times the normal daily production of these items in all of China, and this is Spring Festival week. 

Good on the government for responding, however late, and good on Chinese for stepping up to volunteer, as they did in the Sichuan earthquake in 2008.  It is hard to get the people’s attention when the government cannot be trusted –  in a meeting yesterday, the governor asked for more help from across China.  In the same meeting, a few minutes later, the Wuhan mayor said everything is fine, and under control. Some truth has worked its way through the censorship and the miscommunication and non-communication, but it is not easy. 

You know the expressways are blocked for people trying to leave Wuhan – and by now, probably the entire province.  People who want to get out can try driving on local farm and village roads.  On Wechat groups, there are reports of village people blocking country roads, fighting with Wuhan labeled cars trying to get out, forcing them to turn back or just go somewhere else.  The reports are that during the Spring Festival, five million people left Wuhan, to places all over China.  The incubation time for the coronavirus is said to be about two weeks.  Some of those people will be sick now, and transmitting the virus wherever they are. 

The government is responding in Wuhan, but the virus is by no means under control.  We may see more six-day hospitals in the next week or two.

Abandon all hope, ye who enter here

New Year’s Eve, 2020 

My wife is in the other room right now, crying. She has been reading Wuhan stories, those that get through before they are blocked.

Even now, with the panopticon state nearly complete, some individual wechat messages do get through for a while.  The stories are too long to relay here. I can only give you a sense of the despair – doctors, nurses, people of Wuhan.

It is The Plague (1).  People lined up at hospitals by the hundreds, carrying their x-rays with them, hoping against hope for someone to see them.  In most cases, people will not leave the hospital, or their place in line, so they sleep – without food, without shelter – on the floors, outside, anywhere that preserves their intention to see a doctor.  People dying on the floors untreated because there are no beds, no medicines, doctors cannot leave hospitals, people traveling – now by foot or bike, since buses are shut down – to five or six hospitals hoping someone will do the final checking that will allow them to be treated.  People who are seen by a doctor and deemed not sick enough yet are sent away.  There are certainly hundreds of those patients.  At least some deaths are not reported as virus related. Masks and hazardous treatment clothing are in short supply.  Some other provinces have sent teams of doctors to Wuhan, but it is not nearly enough. 

The government in Wuhan comes in for special hate.  The provincial governor told everyone two days ago – after the quarantine was instituted – that all is well, don’t worry.  In his annual New Year’s speech to residents, the Hubei Party leader made no mention of the coronavirus at all. As of Wednesday, the 22nd, the first mention of the virus in People’s Daily was a small item on page 4.  The first two pages of the paper were all about Xi’s trip to Yunnan.    Mr. Xi’s New Year’s Message, reported from Xinhua, made no reference to Wuhan at all.

No hospital is permitted to make announcements about contagious diseases – all such announcements have to come from the government.  The crisis leader is an 87-year old doctor who led the SARS crisis treatment (2).  Only when he announced that the virus could be transmitted from person to person did the government agree. 

All public forms of transportation are shut down to Wuhan and now ten other cities in Hubei.  No intra- or inter-city buses. No air traffic or expressway traffic.  If your license plate has a Wuhan letter indicator, you cannot cross the border on the expressway without special permission. The only way to get around inside Wuhan is to walk, bike, drive, or take a taxi.  You know how many people don’t have cars.  People are significantly weakened by fever and lungs filling up with virus.  People have to make choices between staying with a sick parent in line or on the floor at the hospital for dozens of hours and taking care of their own children at home.  Hospitals have been told to report zero infections among staff, so doctors and nurses who might be infected are not reported.

I haven’t heard this yet, but since the whole city is shut down, there will be food shortages in a day or two.  Supplies will certainly be allowed in, but not likely in sufficient supply. 

Doctors at hospitals in Wuhan said they expect the total number of infected to be more than 6000.  My own personal guess is that is a low number, based on nothing more than the severity of the foreign reporting, the paucity of Chinese government reporting, and the anguished stories on wechat. Doctors are reporting that some of those infected do not show any fever, so using temperature as a diagnostic is not completely effective, and the incubation period for the virus could be up to two weeks. Today, Friday, January 24, at the moment of writing, there were 900 officially reported cases, an unknown number of unreported cases, and reports are that the virus tripled over last weekend and has spread to 32 of 34 provinces. The Wuhan lockdown is unlikely to be effective, first of all because a lockdown of a huge area of 11,000,000 people has never been tried before, and the window for controlling spread of the virus had already closed before the lockdown was announced on Wednesday.  Not to mention the number of cases officially not reported.

Thursday, January 23, central government mouthpiece People’s Daily sent out a cheery message.  The Chinese people are united in their support for Wuhan.  This is unspeakable. 

Wuhan, hang in there! You have the support of all people across the country. The more difficult the situation is, the more united the Chinese people are. This has been constantly proven by both history and reality.

人民网评:越是艰难险阻,愈益众志成城

苏秦

2020年01月23日11:18  来源:人民网-观点频道

分享到: “1月23日10时起,全市城市公交、地铁、轮渡、长途客运暂停运营;无特殊原因,市民不要离开武汉,机场、火车站离汉通道暂时关闭。”武汉市连夜发出公告,传递明确信号:武汉正在采取更细致、更深入、更扎实的防控举措,全力遏制疫情扩散蔓延。

非常之时,非常之举。这昭示了一个基本逻辑,为了守护人民群众的生命安全:不怕兴师动众、不怕“劳民伤财”、不怕十防九空!

传染病防治有其复杂性,更有其规律性,必要时候必须采取非常之举,这于情于理于法都有坚实支撑。非常之举,必然要打破常规、影响常态。武汉市民的生活将不可避免地受到影响,我们向武汉市民的付出致敬!打赢这场防疫硬仗,每一位武汉市民都值得感佩,每一名积极参与者都值得我们呈上敬意。

非常之举,更需要政府部门遵循全心全意为人民服务的常理。积极回应民众的合理诉求,最大限度减少应急措施带来的不利因素,也是当务之急。这是对我们治理体系的测试,是对我们治理能力的检验。除了武汉,没有哪一座城市可以作壁上观。这不仅是因为疫情的联动效应,更是因为我们对人民的庄严承诺。

疫情来得迅疾,目前一些地方、一些环节面临挑战,做好药品、消毒、器械等防控物资的储备供应,显得迫在眉睫。需要看到,中国作为世界工厂,并不缺少物质生产力,补上物资缺口并非难事。一些地方出现物资短缺属于结构性的,只是“地域错配”,加上春节工厂放假因素而导致缺货。我们呼吁,口罩等物资的相关厂家能急疫情之所急,开足马力生产;全国各地也能紧急驰援、相互支持。

只要全国一盘棋,统筹安排,协调推进,相信很快就可以解决物资短缺等难题。在这个时候,我们就是要把长期培育的社会动员能力和制度优越性充分释放出来。我们的党员干部在危机面前尤其要发挥先锋模范作用,引领大家增强必胜的信心,打赢这场硬仗!

武汉加油,全国人民支持你们。越是遭遇艰难险阻,我们愈益众志成城。这是被历史和现实不断验证的中国逻辑。

相关评论

人民网评:抗击疫情,人人责无旁贷

人民网评:疫情面前要算大账

人民网评:面对疫情,任何侥幸都可能夺人性命

No one trusts the government, among other problems.  When you have a single source of authority, of power, no one can act on local knowledge to do better.  That is what Hayek said in The Road to Serfdom and James Scott said in Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed.   Scott calls this a failure of high modernism, and Chinese governance most certainly is an example of that in every aspect.  Engineering efficiency demands that nothing stand in the way of official action.  But official action does not respond quickly to local knowledge (3)  Combine with a hierarchical government system in which bad news does not want to flow up the chain of command, there is extreme media censorship, and you have the sort of place over which that motto might fit well – abandon all hope.

Happy New Year.

(1) from the Wall Street Journal, January 22 –

China’s cabinet-level National Health Commission said Monday it would treat the new coronavirus as a Class A infectious disease, meaning it would be handled similarly to cholera, the plague and to how it handled the SARS outbreak. Both SARS and the new virus are officially categorized in the more benign Class B.

(2) from Caixin, about January 20 –

A prominent virologist who helped identify the source of the deadly SARS coronavirus nearly two decades ago told Caixin that Wuhan’s spike in new cases “shows that the (new) virus can spread from person to person.” Guan Yi, who heads a laboratory for emerging infectious diseases at Hong Kong University’s School of Public Health, said that while the virus had seemingly not initially passed between people, the rise in cases over the past several weeks meant “we should no longer be playing word games about whether or not this constitutes human-to-human transmission.”

He can afford to speak up.  He is 87 years old.

(3) from South China Morning Post, January 20 – China’s post-SARS reporting system may explain long delays in announcing new cases of Wuhan virus

“… Actually it only takes a short while to get virus results in local hospitals with the test kits. What is time-consuming is that suspected cases are required to wait for a second positive result from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention [in Beijing] before a panel of experts can go ahead with clinical diagnosis. Only after these three steps are completed can we publicly declare any confirmed case,” the official said.

Well done!  One of the early cases was dated January 3.  His viral status was not announced until the 19th.  Most people at hospitals are turned away or simply leave without seeing a doctor at all.

Remember Hong Kong

I’ve written quite a bit about the Hong Kong protests – here, on learning from Hong Kongers and here, on the end of soft power and here, with some sympathy for the Hong Kong police. 

 It feels like we are approaching the end.

At this point, all I can muster is a feeling of sadness and apprehension.  The continued protests and violence will only hasten the end of human and civil rights in Hong Kong, when the mainland government feels a mandate to restore order by force, and maintain it.  Agreements of 1985 will be of little consequence when public order is truly at stake, as it now seems to be. 

Whether the elections are held this weekend or not, they will be a source of further conflict. As you know, CCP still selects or controls most of the candidates and the legislators, even though it is not officially a local political party.  Pro-democracy candidates, like Joshua Wong, have been banned from running in elections. The pro democracy candidates usually get about 55-60% of the total votes, but get fewer than half of the legislative seats, due to the indirectly elected share of the total seats.

The violence will spur businesses leaving for Singapore or other places in Asia, and foreign investment will slow.  The role of Hong Kong as financial hub for China, a role it has performed admirably since the 1970s, will be diminished. Lenovo, for example, could only get its start in China because it registered as a Hong Kong company – at the time, a foreign company. My friends in Hangzhou and Zhoushan talk about building the “back office” real estate for the new world financial hub in Shanghai.  Some of this talk might be boosterism, but I  think not all of it. At some point, China will not need Hong Kong and its freedoms as it has in the past.  Hong Kong can be absorbed into the new supercity planned to include Shenzhen and Guangzhou. 

Scenes from Hong Kong

Source: fox news 

Source: RTHK, Asia Times

Hong Kong will remain as a more or less occupied territory, with occasional uprisings.  Neither the students nor any future government will be able to bring peace to Hong Kong.

There is no path to success for the protesters, whatever that might be other than physical survival.  Many will be arrested and jailed.  A few might be killed, either on the street or in custody. It would be ironic if some of those arrested were sent to the mainland for incarceration, since that was the flash point for the original protests this year.  But China cannot afford to let Hong Kong become a new world symbol of oppression.

But that is what will happen.  In 1836, a group of Texians fighting the Mexican government planned a delaying action at an old mission in San Antonio.  The 186 or so Texians at the Alamo facing about 3,000 Mexican troops held out for 13 days, but eventually all were killed.  Their sacrifice was soon remembered across Texas – Remember the Alamo! – and it became a rallying cry for Texas independence and American lore across the centuries.  Outnumbered, outgunned, surrounded, no hope of victory, they became a symbol of resistance to tyranny. 

Remind you of Hong Kong?

That seems about all that can be expected from the Hong Kong fiasco.  Remember Hong Kong! as a symbol for those living under somewhat autocratic governments now so enamored of Chinese technology and Chinese products.  With the economic benefits will eventually come the loss of moral freedom – to speak and write as you wish, to get news free of censorship, to assemble in protest of government action, to vote for representatives. 

The US is not exactly a model of governance, peace, or economic hope right now. But Voice of America does still broadcast around the world, in Africa, in South America, in the middle east, in southeast Asia.  Someday perhaps VOA can be prouder of its US government sponsorship and can remind the world to Remember Hong Kong!  It was in many ways the shining city on a hill.  Brigadoon, perhaps, or even Camelot.  Watch the final scene – never let it be forgot … that once there was a spot ….

And watch the Hong Kong anthem, written by Hong Kongers

Crash out (2)

update at November 13, 2019 to Crash out –

Crash out may not happen.  We will find out in January.  But the wounding of the British economy is happening as we type, and this piece in Foreign Policy – Chinese Firms Can’t Avoid Being Party Tools – is a good example of how and why Brexit is great for business … in China.

If you can’t get Foreign Policy, let me summarize.  British Steel, an old-line British manufacturer, is being sold to Jingye Group, ostensibly a private steel-maker in China.  This should save thousands of jobs in Britain and help towns in northern England devastated by privatization (!) and changes in the market for British Steel.

This deal is promoted as a private transaction, since Jingye is not owned directly by the government.  But no matter.

As we have discussed many times, there is no such thing as a private company in China, particularly now that CCP has decided that all companies must have a CCP cell within top management and all – all – internal information, patents, contracts, revenues, orders, suppliers, employee information – must be available to the government upon request. See IP Theft in China – No More Worries.   Once a business is beyond the mom-and-pop stage, there is no such thing as a private business as we understand the term.

From the article –

In China, the power of the CCP is an underlying reality in every sector—not a goal for the party so much as an assumption about the state of the world. The CCP simply must lead and thus, all measures that defend and further entrench the position of the party are permissible.

That has produced a state of affairs where no organization is beyond the orbit of the CCP.

The author reminds us of two illustrative events – the first hypothetical – thre absurdity, if it had occurred in China, of Apple defying the FBI in 2015 over encryption of an iPhone; the second, all too real – the Sanlu milk formula scandal in 2008, right before the Olympics in Beijing –

Take the Sanlu milk scandal, in which at least half a dozen babies died as a result of tainted formula, and tens of thousands became sick. The company’s board belatedly decided to issue a full product recall in the face of overwhelming evidence that its product was damaging infants. The board was supposedly legally autonomous, but its decision was overruled by the Shijiazhuang city government as political considerations took precedence over public health. Baidu, China’s internet giant, was reportedly part of the cover-up that followed, all while catastrophic damage to Chinese infants occurred. The scandal only came to light because of actors entirely outside China. Sanlu’s New Zealander partners at the dairy multinational Fonterra, after extensive deliberation, eventually reported concerns themselves to the central government via their country’s ambassador in Beijing.

What marks out the British Steel acquisition is not the pyrotechnics but the mundanity of the deal. Each time a CCP entity acquires a company in this way, the U.K. becomes slightly more entangled in the party-state’s networks. Such entrenchment makes pushback harder should a reckoning ever come. Other countries, such as Australia, are holding a national conversation about their involvement with the Chinese party-state. The U.K., distracted and divided by Brexit, is in no position to do so.

 

All you need is the background music to the movie Jaws.

original and prior update here.

Macroaggressions

From America Online – Several billionaires have recently criticized the wealth tax proposal of presidential candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). And fellow lawmaker Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has come to her aid.   AOC: ‘Y’all, the billionaires are asking for a safe space’

But perhaps the billionaires threatened with having to pay taxes almost like the rest of us have learned how to do political threats from their experience with China. 

China can threaten the NBA based on a single vague tweet from an otherwise obscure NBA general manager.  A China so afraid of a tweet is a China willing to transform a nonaggression into a macroaggression, and needs special care and handling from the world.  Perhaps CCP doesn’t get sufficient love from its family at home. 

China is clearly looking for a safe space in the world.  The Chinese mentality is that China is constantly under attack from the barbarians, whether it is xiongnu in the north two thousand years ago or the western barbarians whose sinister plans to destroy CCP and China were exposed in 2013 by Mr. Xi in Document No. 9

And maybe China has learned from the NBA – the best defense is a good offense. 

So China has created a safe space for itself by threatening multinational corporations everywhere, and by caving to the tantrum the multinationals have temporarily created a safe space in which to do business until the next unfortunate lower level employee tweet, or some corporate employee’s kid in Kansas draws a map in school showing Taiwan as an independent country. 

Now the companies and their owners are seeking a safe space from the horror of paying more in taxes in the US. 

CCP has a safe space.  The billionaires have a temporary safe space in China, and now seek a safe space from AOC in the US.  The US Congress – at least the Senate – has a safe space behind the orange haired baboon.

What would be a safe space for the rest of us, concerned not only about taxes but free expression?

Attached, a list – soon to be outdated – of multinationals which don’t remember first they came for the socialists.  From Lucas Niewenhuis at Supchina, All the International brands that have apologized to China.

The definitive list of international companies that have issued apologies to maintain their market access in China in recent years. Plus, a record of the even more widespread phenomenon of self-censorship for the Chinese market.

Read the whole list.  Fun and shame, at the same time.

PS – Remember that China creates a safe space for multinationals only temporarily.  Foreigners can be had in more sophisticated ways than blocking markets.  I wrote about this in IP Theft – No More Worries and Steve Dickinson at ChinaLawBlog follows up his prior posts with this below.  Anything encoded by a foreign company – patent information, employee information, market information, customers, clients, revenues – will be available – without asking – to CCP.  

China’s New Cryptography Law: Still No Place to Hide

….

So in the end, inviting foreign providers and users of cryptography is just a trap for the unwary. Once data crosses the Chinese border on a network, 100% of that data will be 100% available to the Chinese government and the CCP. Cryptography may work well to prevent access by the public, but all this data will be an open book to the PRC government.

This then raises major issues for U.S. and other country entities that are relying on end to end encryption in China as an exception to U.S. export control rules. Under China’s new system, end to end encryption will no longer exist in China and for this reason this exemption from U.S. export controls will no longer be effective. As the U.S. expands the scope of technology subject to export controls, the risks for foreign companies will become progressively more significant.

No place for a multinational to hide – at least in China. Safe space is always in the eyes of the aggrieved. 

News: IP theft – no more worries

Just a brief note –  the FBI has more than 1,100 China IP theft  cases pending against Chinese entities or individuals.  Not a typo – 1,100.

 For American companies not doing business in China – we should not say, no exposure to China – the FBI investigations may still be something of a bulwark against theft.  Although, one notes, most of the investigations and arrests are in arrears of the crime.

And back nearly a year ago, Mr. Xi promulgated a new IP theft policy which threatened Chinese businesses that steal.  The policy was announced within hours of a Xi-Trump meeting last December, and comprised a coordinated efforts across 38 Chinese government agencies with 38 different punishments.  The insincerity of this announcement, coming immediately upon the leaders’ meeting, was palpable.  If you want to believe, you may.  I wrote about this at the time in Everything new is old again

But with a new Chinese government policy, IP theft in China is no more.

Now comes the latest entry in China’s bid to become the first panopticon state – the cybersecurity law that permits government access to all information, IP or otherwise, stored on any server available to any foreign business operating in China.  China Law Blog has details – China’s New Cybersecurity System – There is NO Place to Hide.  From the blog post –

This result then leads to the key issue. Confidential information housed on any server located in China is subject to being viewed and copied by China’s Ministry of Public Security and that information then becomes open to access by the entire PRC government system. But the PRC government is the shareholder of the State Owned Entities (SOEs) which are the key industries in China. The PRC government also essentially controls the key private companies in China such as Huawei and ZTE and more recently Alibaba and Tencent and many others. See China is sending government officials into companies like Alibaba and Geely and China to place government officials inside 100 private companies, including Alibaba. The PRC government also either owns or controls China’s entire arms industry.

Simply put, the data the Ministry of Public Security obtains from foreign companies will be available to the key competitors of foreign businesses, to the Chinese government controlled and private R&D system, and to the Chinese arms industry and military.

The takeaway on this is that the fear of IP theft in China is no more.  What used to be considered theft, done by stealth, is now a legal process.  As Steve Dickinson from China Law Blog says, welcome to the new normal.   And anyway, remember – information wants to be free.