On passing the academic intellectual torch

William Kirby is a renowned China scholar at Harvard. He has written a dozen books on Chinese history and our relations with China. He has a long list of accomplishments at the highest levels of international academia and professional societies.

When he writes about superior universities in Germany and the US and China, I can only marvel at the scope of his erudition. So I feel a bit out of my element commenting on his latest book Empires of Ideas: Creating the Modern University from Germany to America to China.

Kirby writes that on academic engagement with China the educational resurgence is much less a threat than an opportunity for American and other international universities…. American research universities have been strengthened enormously by recruiting Chinese doctoral students, themselves largely graduates of Chinese universities, who are admitted exclusively on the basis of merit. Our faculty ranks, too, are augmented by extraordinary Chinese scholars. We restrict these students and colleagues at our own peril. Today, any research university that is not open to talent from around the globe is on a glide path to decline. 

True enough. Kirby is familiar with the finest research universities and students in China and the world. Some Chinese students go on to excel in academia and business, scientific and professional worlds in the US and China – fewer right now in the US, and that is an issue for American xenophobia.

Kirby is talking about intellectual leadership. In his historical progression, the 19th century German university model of openness and serious intellectual pursuit passed to the US in the 20th. He says the leading research, learning and education model for the 21st century is now being passed on to Chinese universities. No nation has greater ambition than China, or ability to devote resources to higher education.

Kirby’s approach to international cooperation is what one would expect from a man with so many interconnections – diplomatic and deflecting on sensitive issues and no one can fault that. It is sophisticated and mature. In Empires of Ideas, one is reminded of the marketplace of ideas, the informal, collegial and multinational networks that were part and parcel of the Enlightenment. Free exchange of information and ideas advanced science and engineering and freedom. True then, and true now.

I want to push back a little, though, basically to report on what I’ve seen at schools not in the top ten of universities in China. Kirby sees engagement with Chinese universities as an opportunity, not a threat. I agree. More exposure to the world is a good thing. But we should not fool ourselves into thinking that (1) there are always good intentions behind the dinners and smiles; and (2) most Chinese students are international work-force caliber.

On (1), no one should assume that exchanges are all collegial. CCP has weaponized exchanges within the academy and between businesses. For evidence, one need look no further than the hundreds of cases brought by the FBI against researchers, Chinese and American, seeking to steal IP from university labs and from businesses. FBI director Christopher Wray’s “whole of state” threat from China is not hyperbole.

On (2), no one should fault Kirby for addressing the university environment with which he is familiar. But most schools, faculty, and students are not in that top 5% internationally. We know the myriad stories of cheating and plagiarism in schools in China, and students who come to the US with the same attitudes toward doing the work. I’ve seen myself how lack of respect for honest work tends to bring down the performance of an entire class, including that of domestic students. We know the Yale-Peking University program was cancelled in 2012, partly attributable to allegations of widespread plagiarism and cheating.

Dishonesty in academic work is not unknown among American students. But I know of many instances in which faculty at schools in China simply turn their backs on cheating in exams. And they get little administration support when they try to restrain the dishonest behavior. 

We know cheating on the college entrance exam – the gaokao – is controlled more now than a decade ago, when attempts to control cheating resulted in an angry mob of 2000 parents yelling at test administrators. “We want fairness. It’s not fair if you won’t let us cheat.

The national push in China to control cheating resulted in some odd experiments. At our school in Hangzhou the new president decided to promote an honor code in final exams, as is the case at nearby Zhejiang University (Zheda), one of those top schools in China. This is not to take anything away from Zheda. There is an honors option in the Global Engagement Program, designed to cultivate Chinese students for work in international organizations. The program is conducted in English. Professor Kirby would be happy to engage with these students, some of the best and brightest in China.

But at our provincial-level school an exam honor code was DOA among both students and faculty – no one thought it could work. The only faculty member who could give voice or pen to objection, though, was me. Everyone else had careers on the line. I didn’t have to care. But what the president wanted, the president got.

Before the honor code was to be implemented, I did my own experiment. In one economics course I had plenty of scores from homework, quizzes, and a midterm to provide final grades. I had noticed years before that a final exam with a significant weight – 30% or 50% of a final grade – almost never changed a grade from that going into the final exam.

In class we had some discussion of the honor code. I proposed an experiment. The final exam would only count 10% of the final grade. But I would hand out the exams and leave the room for two hours and we would see what result. No monitors in the room. If students cheated, others were supposed to report them to the instructor for consideration, as the university president proposed.

I also arranged with six of my very good students, three foreigners and three Chinese, to take the final exam a day earlier and then take it again during the whole class exam. In the whole class exam they were to very obviously cheat in any way they wished, but so that other students could see. Open textbooks, read from notes, use phones, copy from other students. Make it obvious. And oh, yes – the whole class exam was different from the one I gave my star students.

You can guess the result – my good students cheated as best they could, and no one reported them to me. When my six finished the exam, they hung around outside the exam room and took pictures of students getting up from desks to look at other exam papers and using phones with abandon.

I don’t know if you call the experiment a success or a failure. But no one told me I had to use the honor code in subsequent semesters.

There is little sense of honor built in to these students. Lots of American students are no different. But an honor code needs good intentions. What good intentions do exist can get waylaid by pressures from family, culture, and particularly CCP.

Kirby is impressed by the earnestness, even in the current days of trauma and contestation, with which Chinese academics pursue joint arrangements with American schools. On one hand, that is understandable. Chinese academics are desirous of contacts for academic and personal reasons (including the ability to publish in western journals and to get their own kids into American schools). Kirby alludes to the CCP corporate overlords that can work to encourage or discourage such arrangements. For a few years before 2012, university joint ventures of all kinds were the rage. CCP pushed for engagements and wanted measurable results. A couple of my Chinese government students from Chicago were responsible for those foreign outreach programs. The pressure to get some agreement was palpable – one-way semester exchange, two-way, with or without American faculty in China, some sort of joint program, and even in some cases a joint degree with an American school. My school had a joint civil engineering degree program with San Francisco State University. A couple of years in China and then to the US for the last two or three years. The American degree was worth something. The Chinese degree – not so much. Until recently there was no international accreditation for most Chinese engineering degrees.

We need the Chinese students, undergrad and PhD candidates, for our own development. But we should not lose sight of the ill-preparedness and ill will that still lurks.

Plenty of Chinese, students and families, come to the US for education and business and – dare I say it – the freedoms that accompany a green card. There are tens of thousands of Chinese immigrants to the US each year – 150,000 in 2018. I know several student immigrants personally- come for the advanced degree, stay for the high-paying job. Quite often, their parents tell them not to come back to live, but to stay in America. 

Not so many Americans go the other way.

Kirby is right to promote engagement for the good of American schools and students and faculty. Some Chinese universities may well join the upper ranks of international schools in the next ten years. But I hope he – and other administrators and scholars – can go into the engagements with a  bit of the skepticism and hard evidence-seeking that led to dismissal of Confucius Institutes at the University of Chicago, Penn State, William and Mary, SUNY, Oklahoma, Texas A & M and others and cancellation of the Yale-Peking U program and consideration of the continual warnings of Chinese deception and theft from attorneys experienced in Chinese business arrangements. Harris Bricken is a good example.

We can take a hint from Ronald Reagan’s treaty policy with the Soviet Union – trust but verify. The expensive dinners and gifts and warm smiles are enticing. Its easy to become enamoured under the influence the velvet-gloved fist. I keep thinking of Sergeant Phil Esterhaus’ warning to street cops before going out on patrol in Hill Street Blues –“Let’s be careful out there.” It can be hard to do that, especially after the wining and dining and graciousness of their potential partners. But Kumbaya this ain’t.

I don’t have hard recommendations for administrators of great American universities. But they should jealously guard the reason they became great in the first place – freedoms of expression, dissent, and honesty in relationships. Too often we have let the Chinese camel’s nose into the academic tent to the detriment of American academic quality standards, research and innovation. A little caveat emptor is always a good idea.

Brief note on end of covid testing at December 14 …

You’ve heard about the end of mandatory covid testing in China. And you’ve heard about the increase in cases, which are not being reported since the government is no longer keeping track of cases. Michael Pettis reports that several of his friends in Beijing are now positive.

Reported cases are falling dramatically. Clearly people getting sick in China are not following the news reports.

 

Just to add data – my wife’s parents (both in their 80’s) and her sister and brother-in-law, all in Jingzhou in Hubei, and her nephew (working in Guiyang in Guizhou) have tested positive in the last two days. All have fevers now, not sure about any other symptoms.

There are no medicines available, even regular cold and fever meds. All sold out days ago. There are very few covid tests, since the government has given up on that policy.  Two weeks ago, you could get a test every day if you wanted.

No one seems to know if this version of covid will be as deadly as the original. The government is banking on it being less lethal.

The phone tracking system seems to work fine, though. One of our friends spent two weeks in the hospital for a procedure unrelated to covid. He was tested every day, every day negative. His phone showed a green signal, meaning no covid.  As soon as he left the hospital, his signal changed to red – positive for covid. 

Good to know that the government is not giving up on ability to track people’s every movement, even if it is not tracking covid status. There is a silver lining to covid … for CCP. 

One speculation is that Xi Jinping is letting covid rip for a while, as a sop to the recent protests.  Soon pressure will build to reinstate testing and isolation, and Xi can claim victory over the agitators – “See? See what happens when you let the people drive policy?”

That seems a bit harsh.  Xi is in a tough spot, among many tough spots. The economy is in big trouble, foreign businesses are fleeing, even Foxconn. Why, oh why, would he want that third term?

Why no change in Covid policies?

I thought there might be some changes in Xi’s zero-Covid policies right after the National Congress meeting in October. The deteriorating economy and uncertainties are frustrating Chinese people and foreign businesses alike. But no changes came. Right now, the protests are huge and widespread and not yet violent, but getting there. And CCP fears nothing more than it does coordinated protests across cities.

Now, via a lead to an analyst in Taiwan, a rationale for the possible delay on changes in the zero-Covid policy.  

We get so wrapped up in the CCP National Congress meeting that we sometimes ignore the
actual so-called government. The lianghui two meetings (NPC and CPPCC) come up after
the New Year, in March. Xi is not yet the new President of China. He is the
General Secretary of the Central Committee of CCP and Chairman of the Central
Military Commission and current President of guoyuan, the national government.
But in March the new government leaders will be elected, included the new
President of China (which will be Xi) and the new Premier, likely Li Qiang.
 
You know that the current premier Li Keqiang has been seriously sidelined
by Xi in the last five or six years. Li doesn’t really run the government anymore.
And the CCP infighting does put Li Keqiang on the side of one of Xi’s factional
enemies.
 
But – in one of his last acts before leaving government in March, Li issued the
twenty new covid policies, essentially letting up a bit on Xi’s zero covid policy –
shortening of quarantines and isolation periods, and curbing of the one-size-fits-all
current policies on lockdowns. This was done right after the CCP National Congress
meeting.
 
This is Li telling Xi to go pound sand – or some other more descriptive term.
 
 
So Xi will wait until he is reelected as President in March and has his own guy Li Qiang as the newly elected Premier.
 
Then some change in the zero-covid policies might happen. Don’t want any more insolence from Li Keqiang. The changes will be done after those meetings in March. 
 
This makes sense to me, but I’d still want to hedge my bets.
 
BTW, Chinese students here will not discuss anything happening now in China in their wechat texts or on the phone. Too dangerous.
 
And China is not yet capitalist. The major supplier of office supplies in China has announced it will stop selling packages of white printing paper held up by students in their covid and Xinjiang protests. (CCP can’t arrest students for holding up signs that say nothing). I thought perhaps the supplier would issue special packages of paper, labeled “Special edition. Only for use in street protests” – at a slightly higher price.  But no.
 

Power of Prayer

Notes from visiting my government students in China

Kuandian County is in Dandong in Liaoning Province, and sits on the border with North Korea, across the Yalu.

It is one of the semiautonomous majority-minority counties in China. The population is mostly Manchu, one of the barbarian tribes that pestered China for centuries. In 1644 the Manchus took over Beijing, established the Qing dynasty and began elimination of the Ming dynasty. Kuandian is one of those dongbei, northeast China areas from which the Manchus came.

During the Korean War, American planes bombed the bridge between Dandong and Sinuiju on the North Korean side, and the bridge has remained in its destroyed condition as a memorial. The Chinese side was rebuilt long ago. 

There is another bridge over the Yalu, over which flows Chinese gasoline and oil and other supplies to the North.  Not much flows the other way.  No need for a bike lane or sidewalk on the bridge – there is no person traffic either way, and both sides want it that way.

 The border with North Korea is heavily fenced, with barbed wire on heavy steel fencing – in some places.  Our student was the vice mayor of Kuandian County, and he knew the border very well. Part of his job entailed having to send fleeing North Koreans back, a job he did not like to do, but was absolutely necessary. Chinese don’t want a million North Korean streaming over the border anymore than Kim Jong Il does. 

In some places, the border is defined by an imaginary line between old concrete posts.

Where the border is not heavily fenced, it is guarded, without a physical barrier. Our student got us a couple of steps into North Korea at one of those places. He said not to go too far, though, because he could get us into North Korea, but not out. Guards are everywhere.

At some places, the border is a rivulet, two meters wide and a good six inches deep, with easy sloping banks from about six feet above. North Korean women wash their clothes in the water, and an energetic Chinese man could leap across and not get wet.  There are no energetic North Koreans who could do the same. If one of the North Koreans does come across the border, the Chinese guards must send them back. 

The North is right there, steps away, separated by water no wider or deeper than one would encounter at some Chicago street corner after a big rain. 

South Korean Christians are strongly moved by the injustice, immorality and cruelty beyond the border. Even now, there are families split by the border, and grandparents wanting to see grandchildren, uncles to see nieces and nephews. The families have no way of seeing each other; prayer is their only connection.

There is a tour bus turnaround at this spot on the border, and busloads of South Koreans come to China to sing and pray at the border. My colleague Scott Peters and I watched a busload of South Koreans disembark, line up and sing to and pray for relatives in the North. There was no one to hear them on the other side, except possibly a guard. The South Koreans are in the upper right corner of the picture.

They stood and sung for a good half an hour. No North Koreans were able to line up on the other side.

The power of faith moves people – in this case, from South Korea across the Bohai to Shenyang or Dalian, where they rented a bus and rode a couple of hours to the border, taking half an hour to pray for family they will never see.   

It is remarkable to stand on one side of a rivulet and be free to come and go, then step across and be … not. Where you stand on the earth can make an enormous personal and political difference.

The South Koreans could not move their family members across the rivulet, but they moved us. Freedom, as they say, isn’t free.

A Quick Voting Guide

We get plenty of advice about how to be a good or strong leader – ask others for input, don’t take all the credit, don’t micromanage … but these are modes of practice.  When we look around, there is surprisingly little advice on the sort of moral qualities a leader should possess.  Here is a quick review.

Plato advises that rulers be a breed apart – possess no wealth, no property, claim no children, to prevent bias and corruption.  Aristotle call for the politician and lawgiver to be wholly occupied with the city-state.  Both require a sort of asceticism, along with wisdom, practical experience, and isolation from corruption.  Philosopher-kings would be good. 

Look in the other usual places for advice.  The business literature is devoid of advice on moral qualities of leaders. The Bible has some advice, though sparse.  In 1 Timothy, a leader is advised to be of pure heart, a good conscience, and a sincere faith; temperate, self-controlled, respectable, able to teach, not violent but gentle, not quarrelsome and not a lover of money.   That is some sound advice, although it seems sort of hidden away in the letters.

Closer to home, and to our times, we look to Mill, Madison, and the American founders for advice on the character of a leader, and find … little.  Without doubt, Washington, Madison, Jefferson, Franklin, et.al. were exemplary leaders, but there seems an assumption that men of intelligence, good will, and perspicacity will naturally lead.  We do have Federalist Paper No. 68  from Alexander Hamilton. This is with regard to what became the Electoral College –

The process of election affords a moral certainty, that the office of President will never fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications. Talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity, may alone suffice to elevate a man to the first honors in a single State; but it will require other talents, and a different kind of merit, to establish him in the esteem and confidence of the whole Union, or of so considerable a portion of it as would be necessary to make him a successful candidate for the distinguished office of President of the United States. It will not be too strong to say, that there will be a constant probability of seeing the station filled by characters pre-eminent for ability and virtue.   Little did they know.  But all claim virtue as a common thread.

Some direct advice

Plato, Leo Strauss, Machiavelli and Nietzsche told us that leaders must project power, and Mao told us that power grows out of the barrel of a gun.  All supported use of the noble lie, the lie in service of protection of the state.  I have no doubt that leaders make decisions in complex environments with no pure solution.  We hope that the lies be told not too often, and at least be noble, and that leaders agonize over their choice.  Cheap lies are just so … unvirtuous. 

In ancient China, rulers did not obtain their posts by election or merit. Confucius still had a great deal of advice on how to be a just and fair leader.  He tells us that the most important way for the people to become virtuous is by example, and in that regard, political leaders should be moral leaders. Analects 13:13 – if the ruler makes himself correct, what difficulty will the ruler have to govern people? If the ruler cannot make himself correct, how can the ruler make others correct?

The example is the legendary emperor Shun, whose virtue and wisdom was so great that he could rule by simply facing south and saying nothing, and his administrators would know the right thing to do, and do it.   Analects 12:22 – if we promote the upright people as the examples for the crooked people, the crooked people will become upright.

Leaders should teach virtue.  In order to do so, leaders must of course teach by example and be virtuous themselves. 

Confucian scholar Dong Zhongshu articulated the character of a ruler in Luxuriant Gems of the Spring and Autumn Annals (Chunqiu Fanlu), essays from the Han dynasty –

Establishing the Primal Spirit

Section 1 – He who rules the people is the basis of the state.  Issuing edicts and initiating undertakings, he is the pivot of all living things.  The pivot of all living things, he is the source of honor and dishonor….(H)e who acts as the people’s ruler is attentive toward the fundamental, careful of the beginning, respectful of the small, and cautious of the subtle.  His will resembles the stillness of dead ember …. He calms his vital essence and nourishes his numen (spirit).  He is quiet and nonactive …. He contemplates what lies in the future and observes what has passed.  He deliberates with his numerous worthies to seek out the opinions of the majority of the people. He knows their hearts and understands their sentiments…. He separates their factions and clans and observes the men they esteem….

 

(Section 2) He who rules the people is the foundation of the state.  Now in administering the state, nothing is more important for transforming the people than reverence for the foundation.  If the foundation is revered, the ruler will transform the people as if a spirit.  If the foundation is not revered, the ruler will lack the means to unite the people…. This is called “throwing away the state.”  Is there a greater disaster than this? … Therefore, when the ruler relies on virtue to administer the state, it is sweeter than honey or sugar and firmer than glue or lacquer. That is why sages and worthies exert themselves to revere the foundation and do not dare to depart from it.

 

What advice for us, now?

Plato told us that the smartest, the best and brightest, should rule.  They should disdain material rewards.  Aristotle told us that leaders should be wholly concerned with the affairs of state.  In the Bible, we have Timothy – pure of heart, self-controlled, not a lover of money.  Confucius told us that leaders should lead by example, and teach virtue. Dong Zhongshu clarified further. Hamilton in Federalist No. 68 told us that the electoral college would ensure that men of preeminent ability and virtue would rule. 

All would agree that loving wisdom is necessary for good rule.  All would agree that rulers should be exemplars of virtue.  All would agree that rulers should be temperate and sincere.

Why, in the name of Plato, Aristotle, Confucius, Paul’s letter to Timothy, Alexander Hamilton … why in the name of God would anyone be thinking of voting for our current dear leader?  Why would someone want to throw away the state?  The inquiring minds of the sages, all of them, want to know. 

It is to laugh – or not … more on culture wars in elementary math class …

It’s not often that life imitates art so precisely.  When it does, the result is frightening. But there it all is, on YouTube and Twitter. 

First the art. Watch Alternative Math  – A Short Film at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zh3Yz3PiXZw&t=17s from Ideaman.  This is a nine minute recounting of a teacher’s existential crisis at trying to teach 2 + 2 = 4 in a modern progressive  American school.  The 2017 film is meant to be a parody, but then ….

… the real life.  On August 16 Cathy Young reported on MathGate, or the Battle of Two Plus Two – the culture wars come to math and reach a new low   at https://medium.com/arc-digital/mathgate-or-the-battle-of-two-plus-two-ed4af5f32933

Should 2 + 2 = 22, or some other set of answers? The battle has come to real teachers and administrators in real schools, as progressive math teachers and administrators obsess over the proper answer to 2 + 2 = x. 

Among the twitter combatants on whether 2 + 2 = 4 is a real mathematics teacher – an ethnic studies math teacher – who posted –

Apparently, in 2019 the Seattle public schools reconsidered their curriculum with a view toward integrating ethnic studies into math. Part of this effort involved teachers considering these questions in the K-12 math curriculum  – How important is it to be Right? What is Right?  Says Who? 

The Seattle document was at:
https://www.k12.wa.us/sites/default/files/public/socialstudies/pubdocs/Math%20SDS%20ES%20Framework.pdf 

It has apparently been deleted. Discussion is at 
https://mynorthwest.com/1537348/rantz-seattle-schools-document-say-math-is-oppressive-us-government-racist/

Apparently, the short film made in 2017 turns out not to be a parody but illuminates a real crisis for some social justice warriors.  We are at this point in American cultural history – Where does Power and Oppression show up in our math experiences? 

As to power and oppression, I would make a point about the role of the Electoral College in elections or letting truly ignorant people vote, but I suspect that would not endear me to the progressive side in this brouhaha. 

In her post, Cathy Young makes the relevant point –

In George Orwell’s 1984, the protagonist, Winston, writes in his diary that “freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four” (i.e., not being forced to deny reality), and is later tortured until he agrees that two plus two can be whatever the ruling Party wants. For many anti-SJWs, this is highly relevant to the current moment: they believe that undermining the truth of “2+2=4” is part of an “SJW” push to compel people to accept “politically correct” fictions.

I wrote about a similar development at Wokeness – and despair for democracy – how the forced language of the progressive left reminds me of the speech codes in the Chinese Communist Party.

Social justice warriors spending their own time and resources, and that of real teachers in real schools, arguing over the meaning of 2 + 2 is nothing but a waste. We are talking kindergarten or first grade kids here, not about more abstract ideas that can properly be considered when those kids come upon base 3.  In the end, the base 10 answer “4” will prevail.  But we will have spent plenty of … stupid … time on the stupid discussion.   My Chinese students are incredulous first, and laughing next. The Alternative Math video circulates widely now on the Chinese social medium  Wechat, with subtitles. To Americans –  “You go right ahead, and argue over the answer.  Knock yourselves out ….” 

But, you know, it all comes out ok in the end.  California governor Gavin Newsom just signed a bill requiring an ethnic studies course for graduation from California State Universities.  Maybe STEM majors from Seattle who are in the CalState system will be able to get credit for kindergarten math.

What do you think of western civilization?

The question to Gandhi is now being asked again, this time by educated, sophisticated Chinese of each other.

This was the topic of a four-hour phone call a few nights ago between Chinese PhDs, both with extensive American experience and important midlevel career positions. 

In a word, their conclusion was the same as Gandhi’s – it would be a good idea. 

Their argument below is depressing, as if you need any more of that. I am paraphrasing in spots and retelling in what follows.  My own Chinese language skills couldn’t have kept up. 

For my colleagues and for many educated Chinese, the US and the west have been the model of civilization – educated, smart, democratic, highest technology and culture, in a word, modern. Human rights were honored, even if not always observed in the breach. This, coming from Chinese who know that historically, Zhongguo was always considered the center of the universe. 

A little background

That the west was the center of modernity was an idea nurtured over a long span of time, probably going back to the era of treaty ports in the mid-nineteenth century.  Out of the humiliation of the 19th century came the May 4th movement, which sought to replace millennia of deference to authority and superstition with “Dr. Science and Mr. Democracy.” 

Ancient Chinese culture was … well, ancient and feudal.  Chen Duxiu, founder of the Chinese Communist Party, saw modernism and personal independence as the conditions necessary for growth.  This was in 1916.

The US remained the modernist pole star for the next hundred years.  The term for the United States, meiguo, means beautiful country. But by 2010, many Chinese believed in the American dream and an American miracle more than did many educated, sophisticated Americans.  Chinese were not ignorant of American deficiencies – racism, poor schools and health care for poor people, a developing oligarchy, gun nuts and chaotic politics – but democratic values seemed able to pull victory from the claws of every looming defeat, and all that was necessary was a little money to get world class schools, education, health care, and a peaceful life. John Dewey had been a popular figure in China, and above all, America was seen as pragmatic.

That was then, this is now

That was the image, and it is no more, my colleagues said in the wechat call.  America has been the standard, but they also considered western Europe, and found it wanting as well. America – and the west – seem in thrall to an ideology, not one my interlocutors could identify, but it was definitely not pragmatic.

This democracy thing – perhaps more precisely, individualism – has met its match.  The covid-19 virus is only the latest and most clearly defining symptom.  Democracies, they said, seem unable to do basic things that improve the lives of most people.  A hundred thousand dead is an acceptable level of loss?  Policies that pit states against one another to obtain PPE? The interlocutors on the phone call couldn’t get to evolving deficiencies in laws, regulations and institutions that were the subject of Why Nations Fail (Acemoglu and Robinson).  Nor had they read How Democracies Die (Levitsky and Ziblatt).  The sense was the American promise was now – well, if not a lie, at least more marketing than substance.

I have many Chinese government friends and associates, some of whom have made moves to purchase real estate in the US for retirement or for their kids to go to school here, or just in case.  Those days seem over, and not only because of the egomania of the leaders Xi and Trump.  The America that was promised is now an uncertain risk.  Who knows what part might fail next?  Metaphorically, the American car used to be new and shiny and had the latest gadgets.  It was safe, everything worked, and the warranty was sound. Now the American car is a used car, and if you look under the hood, it gets pretty scary.  The warranty is barely worth the Constitution it is printed on. 

This jaded view of the US and the west is not new.  Chinese university students in America have been coming home to China for a decade, unimpressed by the lure of freedom of speech and democracy that comes at the cost of guns and mayhem and ridiculous health care expense.  Now world news and opinion is flush with incredulity and alarm about the US. 

There is little sense of individual responsibility and little concern for the other, said my colleagues.  Freedom to die is apparently the mantra for those now rushing to bars without masks or distancing.  Chinese would say, good luck to them.  And, they say, the Cortland County New York wallet card should be made mandatory in Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida – anywhere the stupid people congregate. 

The comparisons with China are easy and superficial, and my colleagues were speaking only in personal, offhand remarks. Their feelings about the Chinese government in January and February were very negative. Now, looking at the rest of the world, they have a different idea. China bungled badly in the first six weeks or so of the virus time, but with testing and lockdown, distancing and quarantine and tracing, it basically beat the virus in two months.

There was no expressway driving allowed.  If people were infected, they were isolated away from their families.  Temperatures were taken going in and out of residential complexes.  People’s level of cooperation was very high.  It didn’t matter if you were young or old, rich or poor, lives were treated as more important than the economy.  Now that cases have shown up again in Wuhan, the plan is to test all 11,000,000 residents in the next couple of weeks.  We can discount real implementation of that plan as fanciful, but nevertheless, the government will test and isolate and trace, and that will work.  Individuals bear no cost for treatment of Covid-19, from testing to ventilator. There is no point in staying away from the hospital if you are sick because you can’t afford it.  All things considered, including that the virus started there, they said, China had about the best possible response.

One can quibble.  This was their considered evaluation. 

In the US – well, you know the news stories.  The rate of new daily cases has still not fallen in two months, to May 23. And that was with two-months notice before shutdowns began. On the phone call, my Chinese friends were appalled at the ignorance and sheer stupidity.  The Michigan legislature shut down rather than confront gun wielding freedom-to-die fighters who deny medical expertise. If I don’t wear a mask, and I infect you, so what?  Leaders tell old people to die for the sake of the economy, and everyone should drink bleach. Neither Dr. Science nor Mr. Democracy are in evidence. Who are these people?  Left unsaid, I think, was the question of whether these can be real humans at all, but there certainly was a sense of the inmates running the asylum. Over the next few months, will we really accept 2000 deaths a week as the cost of doing business?  Is this what human rights comes to?

My colleagues used Marx for reference.  The first stage of capitalism was certainly ugly.  Marx said that every pore on the skin of the workingman was filled with blood or dirt.  But wealth bought respectability and human rights talk, and this worked pretty well until the real control and desires of the capitalist class were exposed in 2020. The political leaders and a lot of citizens are in thrall to the economic oligarchs. 

A story about a woman named Peggy Popham from North Carolina summarizes the views of my colleagues that a good portion of Americans are just … well, nuts – The coronavirus pandemic created the perfect environment for apocalyptic Christianity to fuse with antigovernment libertarianism, New Age rejection of mainstream science and medicine, and internet-fueled gullibility toward baroque conspiracy theories about secret cabals ruling the world through viruses.  About twenty percent of Americans have said they would not take a vaccine when available.

The rejection of science and rationality, they said, means the US can no longer be considered modern. Other Chinese agree. In a recent article, Wu Haiyun, editor at Sixth Tone, echoed the feelings expressed on the phone call, but she was referring to Chinese now in their late thirties and early forties – Trust in Science Saved China. Practicing It Will Keep It Safe

This Chinese view is not itself isolated

Edward Luce at Financial Times writes about the world’s view of America now, and it is not pretty –  William Burns, most senior US diplomat and now head of the Carnegie Endowment – America is first in the world in deaths, first in the world in infections and we stand out as an emblem of global incompetence. The damage to America’s influence and reputation will be very hard to undo.

The Guardian suggests that the world looks on in horror at the US response.

And Fintan O’Toole writes in the Irish Times – Over more than two centuries, the United States has stirred a very wide range of feelings in the rest of the world: love and hatred, fear and hope, envy and contempt, awe and anger. But there is one emotion that has never been directed towards the US until now: pity.

Another colleague of mine whose tax clients are mostly foreign nationals remarked that part of what he had done for forty years was enable people to live, work, or make a living in the US.  Now, he says, he is dealing with the converse – people wanting to move assets or themselves out.

What is to be done?

Now, if you have choices about where to live in the world, where to go? If you have kids, what is a safe and humane place with expectations of solid education in which to bring them up?  Where will a kid be more easily cultivated as a right-valued person?  The virus seems the last straw.

For my colleagues, this democracy thing has come to mean not that citizens are empowered to obtain information and make educated choices, but that “my ignorance is just as good as your expertise” and more to the point, “every man for himself.”  No democratic founder in Athens, the Colonies, or political philosophy in any era would support that view.

This is what the American image has come to.  Evaporation of American soft power cannot be far behind. The vaunted American Dream has become a version of Is that all there is? Robert Frost considered whether the world would end in fire or in ice.  Neither, it turns out.  The world as we know it ends in willful ignorance and stupidity.  The scientist, the doctor, the researcher, the humane and rational end up looking like navigators on Plato’s Ship of Fools. “Fake news,” is what my Chinese colleagues said about this alarming American discrediting of science – but they meant that people could not distinguish science from lunacy.  Good luck to those Americans, is what they said at the end. 

Has Trump has been doing God’s work?

For years, some evangelical leaders have been touting Trump as the wolf-king, anointed by God to enact the Christian right agenda.  Symbols are important in this swamp-fevered world, and Trump’s immorality is actually a positive sign of his worthiness.  Go figure.

Four years ago, Peter Montgomery noted 25 Religious Right Justifications for Supporting Donald Trump.  Christian right leaders spoke endlessly of Trump as a chosen vessel for God’s will, saying things like “God has picked him up” and that Trump is “literally splitting the kingdom of darkness right open” and that “the Lord has put His favor upon him.”

Now I wonder if the coronavirus is a symbol from God as well, a sign of displeasure.  Is God finished with Trump?  Is Trump past his heavenly use-by date?

I ask because there is a long tradition of natural disasters as portents in every culture.  They can be God’s recognition that a ruler is no longer serving the people, and it is time for a change.

American evangelicals tend to see the portents as warnings to society, rather than as warnings to leaders.  Pat Robertson told us that the  Hurricane Katrina disaster was a sign that God is displeased about American policy on abortion. Hurricane Sandy was understood in a similar way.  Jerry Falwell, himself an American natural disaster, pointed the 9-11 finger of judgment at the ACLU, among other miscreants.  Per this poll,  the coronavirus is a portent as well, but only of a general need for Americans to turn back to God.

For me, personally, I don’t like these portents.  Too vague.  The end of days is always nigh, and always attributable to gays, abortion, music, or anyone looking to actually implement teachings from the Sermon on the Mount or pay attention to the Golden Rule.  I want real, actionable portents.

The ancient Chinese Mandate of Heaven seems to work for me.  For more than 3500 years, Chinese have been using alignment of stars and planets and natural disasters of all kinds – floods, tsunami, droughts, even barbarian invasions – as a sign that the ruler may have lost his Mandate of Heaven – the right to rule.   The mandate signals heavenly disapproval of a ruler.

Heaven hears as the people hear, sees as the people see (Mencius 18.8 or Wan Zhang 1.5)

That is the Confucian warning to rulers who fail to protect and serve the people. Chinese emperors, even down to current CCP leaders, have acknowledged the threat.  Terrible Beijing floods in 2012 caused a flood of existential worry at Zhongnanhai, the top leadership encampment in Beijing.  That was the year of transition to Xi Jinping and the rebirth of hard authoritarianism in China.  The disastrous floods in 1626 and 1890 were later seen as dynastic warnings of the end of dynasty. 

The political fear in any authoritarian government is that “performance legitimacy,” the only rationale for its political existence, will be compromised.  This is as true in the US as in China. Mr. Xi has his own ways of avoiding judgment.  For us in the US, Sam Crane at Useless Tree blog notes that democracy in normal times provides a cushion for both rulers and the ruled, by permitting some officials to be replaced without jeopardizing the entire political party.  A few officials or rulers can be changed without threat to the supreme leader.

But these are not normal times, and we have two viruses – one a medical emergency, the other a social, cultural, and democratic emergency.  We are in need of an internal flush, almost a cleaning, as our dear leader promoted the drinking of disinfectant to flush the other virus.   Trump alone is not enough.  We need to flush his enablers as well.

I have written before about similarities among Trump and Xi, CCP and GOP.  The Trump-led GOP is the most despicable and authoritarian regime ever to disgrace American politics.  The portent I am banking on is the covid-19 crisis as retribution from heaven for the banality of evil attributed to the the liar-in-chief and his despicable lackeys.

Franklin Graham, the Billy Graham successor, says the virus is due to mankind turning its back on God.  One wonders whether he has both the direction of causality and the target wrong.  For Trump and GOP, sic semper tyrannis comes to mind.  Perhaps God has heard as the people hear, seen as the people see. 

China seems stuck with Mr. Xi for the duration.  For us, we can only hope that the retribution from heaven is reflected widely in the people’s choices on November 6.  Then, we can get to work on making America great again.

Moral Freedom

In Moral China in the Age of Reform, Ci Jiwei, Professor of Philosophy at Chinese University of Hong Kong, explains that Chinese do not have moral freedom.  His detailed explanation should be required reading for all China observers.

 What does it mean that Chinese don’t have moral freedom?

 Ai Fen is a doctor in the emergency department of Wuhan Central Hospital.  She was the first medical person to tell the world about the virus.  She got the nickname whistle blower for being the first to tell other hospital doctors – including Li Wenliang, one of the first doctors to die.  Her story is in some detail here.

In interviews, she talked about being threatened by the hospital party leader and head of the jian cha ke, the hospital version of the jiwei, the feared CCP Discipline Inspection department.  The leader said that she lost face in Wuhan city government meetings, because of what Ai Fen had said publicly.  The party leader accused Ai Fen of hurting the overall development of Wuhan City, and destroying all the improvements the hospital Party leader had made over the prior years.  According to Ai –

After the interview, I suffered an unprecedented and very severe rebuke.

At that time, the leader of the conversation said, “We can’t afford to raise our heads when we go out for a meeting. The director of XX criticizes our hospital.

Ai was threatened with spreading rumors, for which she could go to jail.  The party leader, incidentally, refused to let doctors and nurses wear masks early in the epidemic – she would lose face and she said, masks would scare patients.  She did not appear in the hospital emergency department until mid-March, when there was a big showy meeting with leaders.  She wore full protective equipment then.  More than 200 – some say, 300 – of the hospital staff are still in treatment for the virus. 

Ai Fen’s story in her own words is at Science Integrity Digest.

Ai Fen walked out dazed and shaken from this criticism meeting with her leaders.  She had never been threatened before.  She is a medical doctor, with many years of schooling and she is, as they say in China, a really excellent person.  But after this warning, this threat, she remained quiet – until her later public interviews.

Two questions – why did Ai Fen – clearly a smart, well educated, thoughtful person – think that these wild accusations about harming the GDP of Wuhan were any of her affair, or even remotely her doing?   Why could she not respond to the Party leader – figuratively, of course – with a personally directed expletive?

A couple of ideas – Ai Fen is an excellent person.  All her life, she was told how to be a good daughter, a good student – primary school, high school, university, medical school – the emphasis was always on being the best.  On the one hand, nothing wrong with incentive and initiative.  But “being the best” also meant being a good soldier, a good Party member, do what you are told and – in one of my most hated phrases in Chinese – meiyou wenti – no questions.  One could not advance in school without learning to mouth the right answer.  Her salary, advancement, stature would depend not only on her excellence, but on her relationship with leaders.  Obey authority is the idea.

What meiyou wenti means is that Ai Fen could not develop the courage to make choices for herself about moral questions – what is right, what is wrong, truth, falsity.  She was always told the correct answer, and there was no room for debate.  Wo bi xu zuo –  I must do it.  Making these judgments requires experience, and she did not have it.  Her reaction, though troubling to her, was to obey.

When presented with the virus diagnosis in December, she did the professional thing – circulate information to her colleagues.  This is science at its best – share information, seek the truth. This, however, was a political error – in CCP terms, an error in moral judgment.  When confronted by the leaders, she then chose to remain silent.

When confronted with power, she could only be in fear of what could happen to her personally from her inexperienced action. As a doctor, she always concentrated on her studies and her work. She was always shielded from the world of real power.  She is young, with two small kids, one a year old.  Jail?  Simply disappear?  She warned her husband after the severe reprimand –

I went home that night, I remember quite clearly, and told my husband after entering the door, if something went wrong, you can raise the child. Because my second treasure is still very young, only over 1 year old.

Most Chinese never have to deal with issues of moral freedom.  They have the luxury of living life, going to work, going to school, going shopping without having to confront issues of right or wrong, truth or falsity and making considered moral judgments – even voting or choosing what can be said or printed. That is what CCP wants.  Others – journalists, writers, artists, social scientists, intellectuals of all stripes – confront lack of moral freedom in some way every day.  In Wuhan, moral freedom came for Ai Fen.  With the interviews, Ai Fen found courage. She rose above CCP, and gained moral stature- not in CCP, but in eyes of the world.

Killer App

Trump, Xi, CCP, GOP is the title of a series of posts I ran about a year ago, pointing out some of the ways that Trump and Xi are alike, and CCP and GOP are alike.

We know that Mr. Xi and CCP wasted about six weeks at the early stages of the crisis.  This no doubt cost lives in China, as people died at home without being tested.

We know that Trump has wasted more than six weeks, since he knew about the virus from early in January when China informed WHO.   This waste of time has cost lives in the US, and is going to cost a lot more, as doctors and nurses work without a “safety net,” preventive measures are ignored by Trump, people die from overdose on hydroxychloroquine and GOP derides the pleadings of the scientists and doctors.  The bungling will force the use of the “death panels” hypothesized by the GOP in Obamacare debates.  In overwhelmed hospitals, doctors will be forced to triage virus patients.  Public health and safety cost money, and Republicans say we can’t afford it.

So let’s help in the election.  Let’s remind all Americans in our high-tech information age that the GOP has developed a killer app for the American people.  Call it Trump.  By June or July, Americans will have realized how true that is.