Brief note on end of covid testing at December 14 …

You’ve heard about the end of mandatory covid testing in China. And you’ve heard about the increase in cases, which are not being reported since the government is no longer keeping track of cases. Michael Pettis reports that several of his friends in Beijing are now positive.

Reported cases are falling dramatically. Clearly people getting sick in China are not following the news reports.

 

Just to add data – my wife’s parents (both in their 80’s) and her sister and brother-in-law, all in Jingzhou in Hubei, and her nephew (working in Guiyang in Guizhou) have tested positive in the last two days. All have fevers now, not sure about any other symptoms.

There are no medicines available, even regular cold and fever meds. All sold out days ago. There are very few covid tests, since the government has given up on that policy.  Two weeks ago, you could get a test every day if you wanted.

No one seems to know if this version of covid will be as deadly as the original. The government is banking on it being less lethal.

The phone tracking system seems to work fine, though. One of our friends spent two weeks in the hospital for a procedure unrelated to covid. He was tested every day, every day negative. His phone showed a green signal, meaning no covid.  As soon as he left the hospital, his signal changed to red – positive for covid. 

Good to know that the government is not giving up on ability to track people’s every movement, even if it is not tracking covid status. There is a silver lining to covid … for CCP. 

One speculation is that Xi Jinping is letting covid rip for a while, as a sop to the recent protests.  Soon pressure will build to reinstate testing and isolation, and Xi can claim victory over the agitators – “See? See what happens when you let the people drive policy?”

That seems a bit harsh.  Xi is in a tough spot, among many tough spots. The economy is in big trouble, foreign businesses are fleeing, even Foxconn. Why, oh why, would he want that third term?

River water flows east

James Palmer reminds us in Foreign Policy that deaths of CCP leaders are sometimes … inconvenient. Announcement of a death may be delayed by hours or days while CCP figures out what the death means. Deng Xiaoping’s death was not reported immediately. Jiang Zemin was not nearly so popular as Deng, but he was known as not-so-loyal opposition to Xi Jinping. His death amid virus-related protests including denunciations of Xi everywhere in China requires some … consideration.

On November 30 Shanghai blogger Qin Feng reported – pointedly, again, in the same words – jiang shui dong liu qu  the river water flows to the east. She had posted that on November 13 and her wechat was immediately blocked by CCP. She posted it again yesterday.

I have no information about any relationship of Qin Feng to the Jiang family. It is possible that she is the daughter of an acquaintance of the family from many years ago, or that someone in her family worked for Jiang at one time. It is possible that she is just making stuff up. There has been a Jiang death watch for years now. He was 96.

No matter. Since we are returning rapidly to an information-free China, when speculation and conspiracy theories are all we have to go on, I’m going with this. Qin had some inside information from about two weeks ago. Her post was odd – what could it mean? The Jiang could be a reference to Jiang Zemin. This odd post was then blocked by CCP.  When she regained her access to wechat – after Jiang’s death was announced – she posted it again.

There is the joke about eastern European political intrigue, when nations were competing frantically both publicly and surreptitiously. Deception was the order of the day. A meeting was scheduled between two fierce opponents, meant to clear the air at least a little. Hours before the meeting, the chief negotiator on one side died. Hearing of the death, the lead on the other side mused. “Died? I wonder what he means by that.”

Et tu, Jiang.

Why no change in Covid policies?

I thought there might be some changes in Xi’s zero-Covid policies right after the National Congress meeting in October. The deteriorating economy and uncertainties are frustrating Chinese people and foreign businesses alike. But no changes came. Right now, the protests are huge and widespread and not yet violent, but getting there. And CCP fears nothing more than it does coordinated protests across cities.

Now, via a lead to an analyst in Taiwan, a rationale for the possible delay on changes in the zero-Covid policy.  

We get so wrapped up in the CCP National Congress meeting that we sometimes ignore the
actual so-called government. The lianghui two meetings (NPC and CPPCC) come up after
the New Year, in March. Xi is not yet the new President of China. He is the
General Secretary of the Central Committee of CCP and Chairman of the Central
Military Commission and current President of guoyuan, the national government.
But in March the new government leaders will be elected, included the new
President of China (which will be Xi) and the new Premier, likely Li Qiang.
 
You know that the current premier Li Keqiang has been seriously sidelined
by Xi in the last five or six years. Li doesn’t really run the government anymore.
And the CCP infighting does put Li Keqiang on the side of one of Xi’s factional
enemies.
 
But – in one of his last acts before leaving government in March, Li issued the
twenty new covid policies, essentially letting up a bit on Xi’s zero covid policy –
shortening of quarantines and isolation periods, and curbing of the one-size-fits-all
current policies on lockdowns. This was done right after the CCP National Congress
meeting.
 
This is Li telling Xi to go pound sand – or some other more descriptive term.
 
 
So Xi will wait until he is reelected as President in March and has his own guy Li Qiang as the newly elected Premier.
 
Then some change in the zero-covid policies might happen. Don’t want any more insolence from Li Keqiang. The changes will be done after those meetings in March. 
 
This makes sense to me, but I’d still want to hedge my bets.
 
BTW, Chinese students here will not discuss anything happening now in China in their wechat texts or on the phone. Too dangerous.
 
And China is not yet capitalist. The major supplier of office supplies in China has announced it will stop selling packages of white printing paper held up by students in their covid and Xinjiang protests. (CCP can’t arrest students for holding up signs that say nothing). I thought perhaps the supplier would issue special packages of paper, labeled “Special edition. Only for use in street protests” – at a slightly higher price.  But no.
 

More on Xi and Hu

You’ve all seen the video of Hu Jintao being forcibly removed from the 20th CCP Congress just before voting on the new appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee. If you’ve not seen it, here it is, available everywhere in the world but in China – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFaG3EpFM8A

You’ll see the papers have already been  taken away from in front of Hu. You’ll see Hu is forcibly removed from his seat and he tries to see the papers in front of Xi Jinping, but Xi pulls them away.

It appears that Hu had a deal with Xi Jinping to promote his son Hu Jaifeng to the Central Committee. Hu Jiafeng is now the party leader in Lishui in Zhejiang Province. The deal was to let Xi have his way with the appointments to the PSC if Hu Jaifeng was also promoted. This did not happen.

Apparently Xi did not want Hu Jintao to see the promotion list, which was in Xi’s documents at his seat but possibly Hu had a different list. In any case, Hu was led out of the Congress.

Now all references to Hu Jintao in Qiushi (Seeking Truth) an official CCP magazine have been removed – speeches, events from when Hu was General Secretary. Go ahead and try it in the English version – http://en.qstheory.cn/search.html?searchText=hu+jintao   Hu Jintao and his son have both been disappeared online. This is like the Washington Post scrubbing all references to Obama once Trump comes into power.

I was asked how media in China will handle the ten years of Hu Jintao if he has been disappeared. There is an easy solution when history is pliable. Xi took power in 2012, Hu in 2002. Just change one number, from 1 to 0, and you have the sort of continuity that CCP wants. Xi has been the people’s leader since 2002, taking over from Jiang Zemin. Mao was the only other leader to be known as people’s leader.

Now begins a more repressive CCP internally and a more aggressive CCP internationally.

If the old promotion rules were being followed, only one of the new Standing Committee members, Ding Xuexiang (age 60) would be eligible to take over from Xi in five years. Ding has no deep party connections beyond loyalty to Xi. Loyalty to Xi is more important than experience or competence. There is no path for succession at this point.

Wang Huning, the chief CCP theorist and very close to Xi, has been assigned to head the CPPCC (Chinese People’s Political Consultative Congress) a sort of alternate legislature. I’m not sure if this is a promotion for Wang or not. He has been on the PSC since 2017. I told you about him a few months ago.  He wrote America Against America following a short stay in the US in 1988. Available at https://archive.org/details/america-against-america

Sowing and Reaping

The Mandate of Heaven means that Heaven shows its displeasure toward a leader via occurrence of natural disasters, disease epidemics, widespread political opposition and foreign threats. Harmony, in other words, does not obtain. It is an ancient Chinese meme, probably created in the Zhou dynasty to justify its defeat of the former Shang dynasty.

Am I too isolated, or has nobody written a short post about Mr. Xi’s third term and the apparent displeasure of Heaven? I mean, I don’t expect dire warnings about the end of the dynasty coming out of China right now, but everyone can see that Heaven is screaming Condition Red (as it were) for CCP. 

In Mr. Xi’s case, one can object – not all current misfortunes are coming directly from Heaven.There are some own goals. But reflect – the last emperor in several dynasties was a dissolute, uncaring, unreflective bum. Xi does not appear to be uncaring or dissolute (aside from his family wealth approaching a  billion dollars) but own goals seem to be characteristic near the end of several dynasties. And Heaven finds its own way to throw the bum out, as it were.

Heaven can express its displeasure through celestial signs. Remember King Di Xin at the end of the Shang whose end was foretold by movements of Jupiter. A sign from heaven signaled the end of the later Han in 213 CE.  David Pankenier in his 2013 Astrology and Cosmology in Early China, p. 194 –

An abundance of other literary and chronological evidence drawn from numerous Zhou Dynasty (1046–256 BCE) and Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE) sources suggests that these celestial events were taken from the start to signal the Supernal Lord’s recognition of the legitimacy of a new regime, first Xia in 1953 BCE, followed by Shang in 1576 BCE, then Zhou in 1059 BCE, and finally Han in 205 BCE.

To be fair, no one in CCP is viewing current difficulties as portents based on the mandate. But let’s take a short review –

– a less than entirely successful 2022 Winter Olympics in the capital, of all places. Constrained media access and boycotts stood in sharp contrast to the positive world image from the 2008 summer games in Beijing. In 2021 CCP threatened countries that carried out a boycott, and many did carry out boycotts of varying types.  

– a bromance with Putin that went south shortly after Xi publicly showed some leg by pledging “no limits” to the relationship. Now China is caught between Xi’s bromance and the Russian sanctions that threaten Chinese businesses that need foreign imports and exports. So for Xi, Should I stay or should I go?

– an unprecedented heat wave that has forced shutdown of business throughout southern China for lack of power (generated by hydropower that cannot function any more in the severely reduced river flows). See, for example, Honda’s plant remains closed. The heat wave is said to be the most severe ever recorded in the world.  From the wiki – According to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera, it is the most severe heat wave recorded anywhere: “This combines the most extreme intensity with the most extreme length with an incredibly huge area all at the same time. There is nothing in world climatic history which is even minimally comparable to what is happening in China.”

– apart from the heat wave and its attendant drying of rivers, the long term effects of global warming will be felt throughout China (and south and southeast Asia). These impact will start being felt about now. Foreign Affairs, August 2022 – China’s Growing Water Crisis. Less water, less food, less energy. My own long term bet is on the River Amur in Russian Siberia – far from Moscow, close to Beijing and the water-short north of China.

– at the same time, the baby bust from the long term effects of the one child policy will force up social service spending at the same time that jobs are fewer, jobs that pay into the social welfare systems are fewer, expectations of students are higher, and the world is no longer so enamored  of more Chinese products. Each year there are about five million fewer people of working age paying into the system. China will age very rapidly in the next decades. These impacts are being felt now.

– a virus that won’t quit despite the (actually heroic) measures to stamp it out completely and resulting damage to the economy.

– an own goal in first hiding news of the coronavirus, then downplaying its impact, then refusing to take any responsibility for its origin, then blocking attempts to discover the source of the virus. CCP threatened Australia for requesting further study into the origins of the virus. Another own goal is the “zero-covid” policy, which is  Xi’s own creation and therefore cannot be altered, even though the local vaccines are not as effective as those in the US and Europe and the lockdowns are severely disruptive (not to credit the US’s own abysmal response).

– an own goal in crushing the real estate industry that accounts for 25%-30% OF GDP. Yes, it’s a Ponzi scheme, but its been a Ponzi scheme for a decade. Why crush it now? Michael Pettis has been sounding the alarm for a decade. Now, it is time.

– an own goal in shutting down after school tutoring businesses, which provided jobs for tens of thousands of young Chinese – at a time when job growth generally is minimal.

– an own goal in fostering wolf warrior diplomacy throughout the world, in which Chinese diplomats used threats, intimidation, and mockery of countries and their leaders by way of demonstrating… well, I guess Chinese “soft power.” No better way to turn the world against Chinese interests. Negative global views of China are now at historic highs.

– an own goal in stimulating a crisis in the Arunachal Pradesh border area with India.

– an own goal in moving some world opinion – including that of some businesses and governments – to prioritize human rights over economic development or company profits. Development and business profits first were always China’s trump in conflicts over human rights or local environmental or labor conditions. Less so, now.

– an own goal in the 2021 anti sanctions law  that criminalized foreign businesses in China  following  human rights sanctions emanating from their home country (meaning, mostly, US).

– an own goal in rejecting world opinion (and that of the Tribunal of the Law of the Sea Convention) that claims to the “nine-dashed line” of sovereignty over the South China Sea are without foundation and illegal internationally.

– an own goal in destroying the “one country two systems” logic that allowed Hong Kong to flourish. Hong Kong is now firmly in CCP control and the world has noticed.

– an own goal in threatening Taiwan in ever more egregious ways, thereby stimulating negative reaction through Asia and promoting US interests in Asia and the Pacific.

– an own goal in forcing Sinicization on the Uighur population in Xinjiang, with concentration camps and other elements of human rights abuse. World opinion does not support CCP claims of job training and education – in mass camps with armed guards and barbed wire fences.

– an own goal in further restricting already heavily censored information about Chinese companies, so the stock markets become even more of an insider’s game than previously.

Mr. Xi came into power with a portfolio of reigning in corruption in CCP and overeager but unproductive investment, particularly in real estate. The concept was to ensure CCP survival in the 21st century. By Chinese standards he has done a decent job in attacking corruption; less well on real estate.  But Xi can’t really get a firm hold on either one. Significant corruption, like the Chinese financial system itself (borrowers, lenders, developers, local governments) are systematically flawed. Corruption is built in to the relationship society, going back thousands of years. The financial system for real estate is a Ponzi scheme – for example, buyers take out a mortgage and begin paying monthly as soon as they sign the contract to buy, even though the unit might not be finished for a year or two or three.  Developers take the money and finish their last project or bid on the land for the next. Bailing out developers or lenders is not the solution.

Foreign businesses in 2022 have been fleeing China – a complete reversal of the environment when Xi took power in 2012. Reasons vary – trade war related crackdowns on American businesses, the Kulturkampf against western products and ideas, or all of the above creating an excuse to give up on arbitrary threatening from suppliers or bad faith business practices. The revolutionary song “The East is Red” refers now to bad debt and poor stock market or business performance (a 1963 video here).  

Heaven moves in mysterious ways. The mandate does not disappear in short order and doesn’t have a termination date. But one has to think Heaven has delivered public notice.

Watch the fires burning across the river

Autocrats make blunders. Xi has made some, and Putin … well, ok. But Xi is not the isolated single decider that Putin appears to be. And China seems well-positioned to benefit from the Ukraine fiasco, regardless of outcome, if China simply keeps its head down, as best it can.

So why the unswerving support for Putin? What can the strategy be? Is it just autocrat bromance? You and me against the world?

As is often the case, Chinese policy is to speak out of both sides of the mouth – at home, government support for Russia is solid and the US-NATO is the cause of all the pain. In the world, the Chinese government takes a more nuanced tone, only wishing to seek peace, even as it seeks to supply Russia as best it can and avoid sanctions and also avoiding taking an active role in mediation.

And if the EU buys less oil and gas from Russia, then Russia will sell it to an eager China. Whatever the Ukraine result, China learns more about how to approach taking Taiwan. China could gain international prestige by fostering a peace deal, however reluctantly and late they do it. So why antagonize the west and most of the rest of the world when the gains will come in any case without effort?

Now comes the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a well-respected think tank that provides a forum for international thought leaders to discuss how to achieve peace in the world. Carnegie has a piece seeking to make some sense of it all – China’s Ukraine Calculus is Coming into Focus.

The article by Paul Haenle and Sam Bresnick describes five conflicting goals for Xi – manage public opinion at home, provide Russia with rhetorical support, signal to Asian countries the danger of NATO-like structures in the Indo-Pacific, appear to be a responsible stakeholder in the broader international community by calling for negotiations, and limit the damage to its economic ties with the United States and Europe.

Well and good. I want to propose another element of long term thinking that might figure into Xi’s calculus, and that is to look east, young man – to Siberia and the Arctic. The United States Geological Survey estimates that 22 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas could be located beneath the Arctic. The Arctic holds large quantities of minerals, including phosphatebauxiteiron orecoppernickel, gold, and diamond.

There are five countries that have legal access to Arctic resources, based on their territorial economic zones – Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Norway, the US, and – Russia.  China desperately wants in to that group. It has argued for inclusion because it is a “near-Arctic” nation.

China tried to buy an abandoned naval base in Greenland in 2017, but that was turned down. A few years earlier, a Chinese attempt to do a large commercial real estate project – in Greenland –  was also turned down. This could only have been cover for Chinese “near Arctic” ownership claims.

Even closer to Beijing, Siberia is similarly blessed, with mineral resources and coal and iron and rivers for hydropower and lots and lots of wood.

In any case, I am completely speculating. I have no inside information on this. But I can see the natural advantage for China in Siberia and the Arctic. Russia will not have the talent or technology to exploit the huge available resources. Siberia is far, far away from Moscow and China is very close. The deals might not come this year or next, but soon enough. Its just good long term planning, which China knows how to do. So why not keep the Russia bromance alive?

There are pertinent phrases from the ancient Chinese classic Thirty-Six Stratagems that Chinese business and government people all recognize –

Wait at leisure while the enemy labors (以逸待勞, Yǐ yì dài láo)

Loot a burning house (趁火打劫, Chèn huǒ dǎ jié)

Watch the fires burning across the river (隔岸觀火, Gé àn guān huǒ)

Russia doesn’t have to be the enemy. Just the next resource-rich flailing state in need of assistance. We can switch to Latin – carpe diem.

Laser-like development focus …

Just a brief note –

Speeches and policy documents are nearly always long. It is not uncommon for a leader to talk for an hour or two on one topic, with supremely bored listeners fastened to their seats and their cell phones,  trying to pass the time. (The cell phone diversion is less common with speeches by senior CCP officials).

English translations of CCP documents and speeches are often unreadable. Not because of translation problems, but the confluence of soaring generalities being pounded into heads.

Here is a good example. This is not noteworthy for any particular reason except that I tried to read this recently and as usual, got stopped after a couple of sentences.

This is about Mr. Xi’s new Common Prosperity policy, latest of the attempts to raise household incomes for the 600 to 800 million Chinese who can still be called “low-income.” The US has its share of ill-defined programs to aid the poor, but this laundry list struck me as saying particularly nothing while it covers just about everything.

This was reported at Sinocism recently.

  1. Comments from the Zhejiang Common Prosperity front lines

Page 1 of the 2.8 Zhejiang Daily has an article on a meeting chaired by the Provincial Party Secretary Yuan Jiajun to discuss Zhejiang’s Common Prosperity pilot work.

Yuan Jiajun stressed that common prosperity is a pioneering cause and a systematic transformation and reshaping. 袁家军强调,共同富裕是开性事,是系革重塑。

The article contains quite an ambitious list, and is a good reminder that “Common Prosperity” is not just material but also includes culture and ideology.

浙江日 – 勇担使命 塑造 共同富裕美好社会建

It is necessary to promote the first demonstration of high-quality economic development, speed up the construction of a modern industrial system led by the digital economy, establish a global innovation mechanism to support common prosperity, build a high-quality employment and entrepreneurship system, strengthen the financing and development mechanism of small and medium-sized enterprises, and build a universal and inclusive promotion system for quality consumption. It is necessary to promote the reform of the income distribution system to demonstrate first, solidly carry out the action of expanding the middle and lowering the lower, build a big social security system, explore the financial transfer payment system and tax collection and management reform, improve the reasonable growth mechanism of wage income, explore the construction of a new charity system, and explore the establishment of a statistical monitoring system of common prosperity. It is necessary to promote the first demonstration of high-quality sharing of public services, accelerate the construction of a child-friendly society and an elderly-friendly society, improve the mechanism of promoting inclusive human capital, and build a whole-course health service system for everyone, basically realize the important application of the masses and enterprises being able to “handle affairs in the palm of their hands”, and iteratively upgrade “basic public services in Zhejiang”. It is necessary to promote the first demonstration of coordinated development between urban and rural areas, vigorously implement the integration reform of strengthening villages and enriching people with rural collective economy as the core, accelerate the integration reform of urbanization of agricultural transfer population, improve the mechanism of “one county, one policy” to promote common prosperity in mountain areas, innovate and improve the system and mechanism of “mountain-sea cooperation+enclave economy”, and make overall plans to promote future community and future rural construction.

It is necessary to promote the demonstration of the development of advanced socialist culture, strengthen the mainstream ideology and public opinion of common prosperity, thoroughly implement the global civilization creation project, build a precise access mechanism of volunteer service, build a “15-minute quality cultural life circle” and build a highland of cultural innovation and development. It is necessary to promote the demonstration of ecological civilization construction, systematically promote the carbon neutrality work in peak carbon dioxide emissions, implement the action of ecological benefit to the people, and improve the realization mechanism of ecological product value. It is necessary to promote the demonstration of social governance first, continuously improve the precise intelligent control mechanism of “dynamic clearing” for epidemic prevention and control, coordinate the implementation of the special action of “law to help common prosperity and law to protect peace”, promote the reform of “integration of county and township, unified management and control” in the whole province, and improve the great peace mechanism of closed-loop risk control.

No doubt all will be implemented at usual China speed.

Monkey See, Monkey Do

History professor Heather Cox Richardson reporting a few days ago – “Not to be outdone, in Florida, Governor Ron DeSantis today signed a law requiring that public colleges and universities survey students, faculty, and staff about their beliefs in order to make sure the institutions support “intellectual diversity” … Without citing any evidence, Republican lawmakers have warned that there are “socialism factories” in the state universities. The law permits students to record lectures without the consent of the professor or other students to be used in legal cases against the school.”

You would think that future presidential candidate DeSantis would be more careful about the Chinese imports he chooses to buy.  But there it is in all its fear and trembling – students recording professors and turning them into the authorities.  Where else do we find such exhortations to students?

Well, of course, in Mr. Xi’s China.  From the New York Times, almost two years ago – With a neon-red backpack and white Adidas shoes, he looks like any other undergraduate on the campus of Sichuan University in southwestern China…But Peng Wei, a 21-year-old chemistry major, has a special mission: He is both student and spy.

Mr. Peng is one of a growing number of “student information officers” who keep tabs on their professors’ ideological views. They are there to help root out teachers who show any sign of disloyalty to President Xi Jinping and the ruling Communist Party.

“It’s our duty to make sure that the learning environment is pure and that professors are following the rules” ….

In a throwback to the Mao Zedong era, Chinese universities are deploying students as watchdogs against their teachers, part of a sweeping campaign by Mr. Xi to eliminate dissent and turn universities into party strongholds.

The students said they were inspired by a call by Mr. Xi in March to strengthen ideological training and to prepare for a “national rejuvenation.” They started an anonymous social media account where they published line-by-line criticisms of Professor Lü’s lectures….

I am personally aware of a couple of Chinese professors being disciplined or demoted in this crackdown on speech and thought.  All students need do is report on professors to the tuanpai (Youth League) in the school.  The Party organizations will do the rest.  No doubt DeSantis will have a similar procedure.

A couple of years ago, I wrote a series of posts on similarities between Mr. Xi and DJT, GOP and CCP.  Even post election, nothing persuades me that the GOP and CCP are not still aligned in their goals of purification and elimination of dissent.  Power corrupts. Ok. But power doesn’t necessarily take down leaders. It first takes the innocent, the curious, and the thoughtful, whether the power is in GOP or CCP.

Nice to know that in this era of restrictions on Chinese imports, the GOP can still be selective about the imports it chooses to freely adopt. 

Everything old is new again – Inner Mongolia

If you’ve gotten tired of depressing news from Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong, there is a new oppression to watch in Inner Mongolia. As in the other provinces comprising mostly non-Han people, the new policy requires forced language change and erasing of traditional culture.

It’s a new oppression with an old mode of operation, same as used in the other provinces – forced acculturation, sterilizations, threats to school kids and old people and everyone else, threats of loss of job for parents whose kids don’t conform, disappearances and torture and jail sentences for “picking quarrels and provoking troubles,” the usual charge against dissidents, lawyers, writers, journalists, and activists of any stripe who fail to meet CCP standards of obeisance.

Also included are the standard threats, disappearances, and roughing up for foreign journalists reporting on local events.  Alice Su, Beijing Bureau Chief for the LA Times, is the latest victim, presumably while researching her article in the Times China cracks down on Inner Mongolian minority fighting for its mother tongue.

It is remarkable how well CCP follows prescriptions outlined in 1984 and Animal Farm.  Double-think is a prerequisite. An example – we know from the Chinese Constitution that all nationalities are equal …

Article 4. All nationalities in the People’s Republic of China are equal. The state protects the lawful rights and interests of the minority nationalities and upholds and develops the relationship of equality, unity and mutual assistance among all of China’s nationalities. Discrimination against and oppression of any nationality are prohibited; any acts that undermine the unity of the nationalities or instigate their secession are prohibited. The state helps the areas inhabited by minority nationalities speed up their economic and cultural development in accordance with the peculiarities and needs of the different minority nationalities. Regional autonomy is practised in areas where people of minority nationalities live in compact communities; in these areas organs of self- government are established for the exercise of the right of autonomy. All the national autonomous areas are inalienable parts of the People’s Republic of China. The people of all nationalities have the freedom to use and develop their own spoken and written languages, and to preserve or reform their own ways and customs.

 … but quite clearly, some nationalities are more equal than others.

From Alice Su’s article –

“All ethnic groups must embrace tightly like the seeds of a pomegranate,” read a slogan from Chinese President Xi Jinping printed in Mandarin on the wall.

So we are in the realm of doublethink already, if Mongolians are being forced to abandon their language and culture.  But the Constitution always has an out – read article 4 above, again, and note – . The state helps the areas inhabited by minority nationalities speed up their economic and cultural development in accordance with the peculiarities and needs of the different minority nationalities.  Sort of in the same realm as, “we had to destroy the village in order to save it.”

Alice Su, again –

Bao said her grandson had to come back to class because his parents’ workplaces threatened to fire them otherwise. “We had no choice,” she said. “We want our grandson to go to school, of course, but not to forget his mother tongue.”

“It’s too outrageous,” her husband added. “What century are we living in? They’ve snatched away our rights.”

Now you might think promotion of “rights” in China is a western concept that would make one subject to arrest.  But remember these sections from the Constitution –

Article 35. Citizens of the People’s Republic of China enjoy freedom of speech, of the press, of assembly, of association, of procession and of demonstration.

Article 36. Citizens of the People’s Republic of China enjoy freedom of religious belief. No state organ, public organization or individual may compel citizens to believe in, or not to believe in, any religion; nor may they discriminate against citizens who believe in, or do not believe in, any religion. The state protects normal religious activities. No one may make use of religion to engage in activities that disrupt public order, impair the health of citizens or interfere with the educational system of the state. Religious bodies and religious affairs are not subject to any foreign domination.

Article 37. The freedom of person of citizens of the People’s Republic of China is inviolable.

The people of Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have equal rights with other Chinese.  Its just that … well, you know.  Animal Farm. 

Bill Bishop at Sinocism has more.  Before we get too high-hat about this, the US has its own terrible history with racial and ethnic minorities.  But when Chinese media and foreign representatives go on about conditions in the US, remember that most of the time the American government has worked to protect rights of minorities.  The Chinese government works to define their rights away.  Too often, we forget that with rights come responsibilities.  In China, the responsibilities include those of obeying CCP. 

Moral Freedom

In Moral China in the Age of Reform, Ci Jiwei, Professor of Philosophy at Chinese University of Hong Kong, explains that Chinese do not have moral freedom.  His detailed explanation should be required reading for all China observers.

 What does it mean that Chinese don’t have moral freedom?

 Ai Fen is a doctor in the emergency department of Wuhan Central Hospital.  She was the first medical person to tell the world about the virus.  She got the nickname whistle blower for being the first to tell other hospital doctors – including Li Wenliang, one of the first doctors to die.  Her story is in some detail here.

In interviews, she talked about being threatened by the hospital party leader and head of the jian cha ke, the hospital version of the jiwei, the feared CCP Discipline Inspection department.  The leader said that she lost face in Wuhan city government meetings, because of what Ai Fen had said publicly.  The party leader accused Ai Fen of hurting the overall development of Wuhan City, and destroying all the improvements the hospital Party leader had made over the prior years.  According to Ai –

After the interview, I suffered an unprecedented and very severe rebuke.

At that time, the leader of the conversation said, “We can’t afford to raise our heads when we go out for a meeting. The director of XX criticizes our hospital.

Ai was threatened with spreading rumors, for which she could go to jail.  The party leader, incidentally, refused to let doctors and nurses wear masks early in the epidemic – she would lose face and she said, masks would scare patients.  She did not appear in the hospital emergency department until mid-March, when there was a big showy meeting with leaders.  She wore full protective equipment then.  More than 200 – some say, 300 – of the hospital staff are still in treatment for the virus. 

Ai Fen’s story in her own words is at Science Integrity Digest.

Ai Fen walked out dazed and shaken from this criticism meeting with her leaders.  She had never been threatened before.  She is a medical doctor, with many years of schooling and she is, as they say in China, a really excellent person.  But after this warning, this threat, she remained quiet – until her later public interviews.

Two questions – why did Ai Fen – clearly a smart, well educated, thoughtful person – think that these wild accusations about harming the GDP of Wuhan were any of her affair, or even remotely her doing?   Why could she not respond to the Party leader – figuratively, of course – with a personally directed expletive?

A couple of ideas – Ai Fen is an excellent person.  All her life, she was told how to be a good daughter, a good student – primary school, high school, university, medical school – the emphasis was always on being the best.  On the one hand, nothing wrong with incentive and initiative.  But “being the best” also meant being a good soldier, a good Party member, do what you are told and – in one of my most hated phrases in Chinese – meiyou wenti – no questions.  One could not advance in school without learning to mouth the right answer.  Her salary, advancement, stature would depend not only on her excellence, but on her relationship with leaders.  Obey authority is the idea.

What meiyou wenti means is that Ai Fen could not develop the courage to make choices for herself about moral questions – what is right, what is wrong, truth, falsity.  She was always told the correct answer, and there was no room for debate.  Wo bi xu zuo –  I must do it.  Making these judgments requires experience, and she did not have it.  Her reaction, though troubling to her, was to obey.

When presented with the virus diagnosis in December, she did the professional thing – circulate information to her colleagues.  This is science at its best – share information, seek the truth. This, however, was a political error – in CCP terms, an error in moral judgment.  When confronted by the leaders, she then chose to remain silent.

When confronted with power, she could only be in fear of what could happen to her personally from her inexperienced action. As a doctor, she always concentrated on her studies and her work. She was always shielded from the world of real power.  She is young, with two small kids, one a year old.  Jail?  Simply disappear?  She warned her husband after the severe reprimand –

I went home that night, I remember quite clearly, and told my husband after entering the door, if something went wrong, you can raise the child. Because my second treasure is still very young, only over 1 year old.

Most Chinese never have to deal with issues of moral freedom.  They have the luxury of living life, going to work, going to school, going shopping without having to confront issues of right or wrong, truth or falsity and making considered moral judgments – even voting or choosing what can be said or printed. That is what CCP wants.  Others – journalists, writers, artists, social scientists, intellectuals of all stripes – confront lack of moral freedom in some way every day.  In Wuhan, moral freedom came for Ai Fen.  With the interviews, Ai Fen found courage. She rose above CCP, and gained moral stature- not in CCP, but in eyes of the world.