Watch the fires burning across the river

Autocrats make blunders. Xi has made some, and Putin … well, ok. But Xi is not the isolated single decider that Putin appears to be. And China seems well-positioned to benefit from the Ukraine fiasco, regardless of outcome, if China simply keeps its head down, as best it can.

So why the unswerving support for Putin? What can the strategy be? Is it just autocrat bromance? You and me against the world?

As is often the case, Chinese policy is to speak out of both sides of the mouth – at home, government support for Russia is solid and the US-NATO is the cause of all the pain. In the world, the Chinese government takes a more nuanced tone, only wishing to seek peace, even as it seeks to supply Russia as best it can and avoid sanctions and also avoiding taking an active role in mediation.

And if the EU buys less oil and gas from Russia, then Russia will sell it to an eager China. Whatever the Ukraine result, China learns more about how to approach taking Taiwan. China could gain international prestige by fostering a peace deal, however reluctantly and late they do it. So why antagonize the west and most of the rest of the world when the gains will come in any case without effort?

Now comes the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a well-respected think tank that provides a forum for international thought leaders to discuss how to achieve peace in the world. Carnegie has a piece seeking to make some sense of it all – China’s Ukraine Calculus is Coming into Focus.

The article by Paul Haenle and Sam Bresnick describes five conflicting goals for Xi – manage public opinion at home, provide Russia with rhetorical support, signal to Asian countries the danger of NATO-like structures in the Indo-Pacific, appear to be a responsible stakeholder in the broader international community by calling for negotiations, and limit the damage to its economic ties with the United States and Europe.

Well and good. I want to propose another element of long term thinking that might figure into Xi’s calculus, and that is to look east, young man – to Siberia and the Arctic. The United States Geological Survey estimates that 22 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas could be located beneath the Arctic. The Arctic holds large quantities of minerals, including phosphatebauxiteiron orecoppernickel, gold, and diamond.

There are five countries that have legal access to Arctic resources, based on their territorial economic zones – Canada, Denmark (Greenland), Norway, the US, and – Russia.  China desperately wants in to that group. It has argued for inclusion because it is a “near-Arctic” nation.

China tried to buy an abandoned naval base in Greenland in 2017, but that was turned down. A few years earlier, a Chinese attempt to do a large commercial real estate project – in Greenland –  was also turned down. This could only have been cover for Chinese “near Arctic” ownership claims.

Even closer to Beijing, Siberia is similarly blessed, with mineral resources and coal and iron and rivers for hydropower and lots and lots of wood.

In any case, I am completely speculating. I have no inside information on this. But I can see the natural advantage for China in Siberia and the Arctic. Russia will not have the talent or technology to exploit the huge available resources. Siberia is far, far away from Moscow and China is very close. The deals might not come this year or next, but soon enough. Its just good long term planning, which China knows how to do. So why not keep the Russia bromance alive?

There are pertinent phrases from the ancient Chinese classic Thirty-Six Stratagems that Chinese business and government people all recognize –

Wait at leisure while the enemy labors (以逸待勞, Yǐ yì dài láo)

Loot a burning house (趁火打劫, Chèn huǒ dǎ jié)

Watch the fires burning across the river (隔岸觀火, Gé àn guān huǒ)

Russia doesn’t have to be the enemy. Just the next resource-rich flailing state in need of assistance. We can switch to Latin – carpe diem.

What Chinese are talking about … fake news

You know that China is increasing pressure on every state it can bully.  The bullying is easiest when the victim state has a substantial share of its GDP connected to China, whether as exports or as Chinese FDI coming in.  Now come fake news stories published in China, quoting New Zealand politicians approving of Chinese policies on the Belt and Road initiative.  New Zealand is in a tough spot. 
 
It is one of the “five eyes” countries, those English speaking countries that share some cultural backgrounds and concepts of law and government.  Others are the US, England, Canada, and Australia.  These five share intelligence efforts in some detail.  The US agencies involved include the FBI and the National Security Agency (NSA).  Security issues – now, the Huawei 5G business, and related Chinese hacking and theft – are top priorities among the five eyes countries.  Even more than Australia, New Zealand is a western country in Asia. 
 
New Zealand is isolated.  It is more than 1300 miles from Sydney to Auckland and it cannot develop much stronger markets for agricultural goods elsewhere in the world.  China is its largest trading partner, followed by Australia.  Agricultural exports are about 27% of GDP, and food exports are about half of that. New Zealand signed a free trade agreement with China in 2008.
 
A good example of the position in which New Zealand finds itself is the relative lack of police response to the attacks on the home and office of Anne Marie Brady, a scholar at the University of Canterbury, who has written in detail about the means by which China is infecting media and politics and public opinion outside China.  I wrote about these attacks in two places in the last couple of months. It is suspected that the intruders, who have also left threatening phone messages, are some local version of chengguan, the Chinese hired thugs who terrorize street vendors, old ladies who don’t want to leave their homes in the way of demolition, and anyone in the way of growth and development.  A substantial contingent of chengguan were responsible for watching Chen Guangcheng for years before he escaped in 2012.   New Zealand police have found no evidence, it seems, and do not seem too alarmed by the attacks.  There seems no doubt that these despicable attacks are politically motivated.  Brady’s recent article is Magic Weapons: China’s political influence activities under Xi Jinping. 
 
What is New Zealand to do? 
 
 
4. Chinese pressure on New Zealand increasing
Fake OpEd on People’s Daily English site by former Prime Minister Dame Jenny Shipley – Foreign Minister Winston Peters slams former Prime Minister Jenny Shipley after China Daily article appears – NZ Herald:
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has launched a stinging attack on former Prime Minister Dame Jenny Shipley after an article appeared in China’s “People’s Daily” under her byline complimenting China on its reforms and the Belt and Road Initiative.
But Shipley did not write the piece, which appears under the Online opinion section. It is headlined “We need to listen to China” and carries Dame Jenny’s byline and on Tuesday night was the fourth best read piece on the website.
She was interviewed by the state-run newspaper in December for a feature article which has run already and was surprised to learn a new piece had been published under her name.

Some economic development issues are similar around the world.   An American local government, faced with declining tax base, ageing population, loss of markets, and little ability to change the course of history is faced with  tough choices.  New Zealand is in a similar spot, with respect to China and the English-speaking west.   But American local governments usually don’t have to deal with fake news stories planted by enemies in the town next door.

Url for the New Zealand Herald article –

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12205347&ref=clavis