We are lucky to have lived experience of 2025. In 25 or 50 or 100 years historians and writers of all stripes will want to know about 2025, another year that everyone will remember for its singular event in history – when the US gave up the “shining city on a hill,” the last best hope of mankind, the leading scientific and technological country for the prior 150 years, the leading economy of the last hundred years, the proudest achievement of the Enlightenment, the one country that – even now- people clamor to come to, the place that said “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”
And to be fair to the US, we didn’t get beaten. We just … retired. Left the field, particularly in science and technology.
You know the perspectives of the current president of the US. It’s hard to fathom. The US government has left the field in just about every discipline of policy, foreign and domestic.
China is already leading the US in most fields of advanced tech. If you wish, you can peruse the report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute ASPI’s two-decade Critical Technology Tracker that finds China leading in 57 of 64 tech fields.
The US led in 60 of 64 technologies in the five years from 2003 to 2007, but in the most recent five years (2019–2023) is leading in seven. China led in just three of 64 technologies in 2003–20074 but is now the lead country in 57 of 64 technologies in 2019–2023, increasing its lead from our rankings last year (2018–2022), where it was leading in 52 technologies.
There are naysayers to this admittedly gloomy view of the tech future. But, say the naysayers. … America! MAGA! The US will prevail in the long run because reasons a, b, c, d, e ….
Those arguments remind me of the continually receding arguments against “humans are animals” discussion of the last century. Humans stand on two legs … well, so can great apes. Humans have speech … well, apes and other animals find ways to communicate. Humans can pass on history and learning. Ok. So can chimps. Humans make tools. ok. Chimps and others. Humans mourn their dead. So do many animals.
At some point we might reach, only humans play baseball. And maybe they’ve got us there. But by then … well, that’s the long run, and you know about that.
China forges ahead in science and technology. Mr. Xi gave a speech about a year ago outlining Chinese goals for science and technology. This was a political speech, and yes, China has plenty of its own problems. But it difficult to see anything but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_East_is_rising_and_the_West_is_declining.
Below, a comment on Xi’s speech from Bill Bishop at Sinocism – Xi Jinping is investing in China’s science and technology research as Trump is gutting America’s research foundations. The speech was reprinted in Qiushi, the leading CCP intellectual magazine.
Bill Bishop –
Trump and his team want to destroy one of the key foundations of American strength, just as China is massively intensifying its efforts to catch up and then surpass the US.
The April 1st issue of Qiushi leads with Xi Jinping’s June 2024 speech at the National Science and Technology Conference, the National Science and Technology Award Conference, and the Academicians’ Assembly of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering. In that speech – Forge Ahead Towards the Grand Goal of Building a Technological Powerhouse – he outlined China’s strategic goal of becoming a global science and technology power by 2035.
Xi emphasized that Chinese-style modernization requires scientific and technological modernization to support high-quality development. He highlighted China’s recent technological achievements while acknowledging persistent challenges in original innovation capability, key technologies, and talent shortages.
The speech identified five key elements of a science and technology power:
- Strong basic research and original innovation capabilities
- Strong capabilities to tackle key core technologies
- Strong international influence and leadership in global science
- Strong abilities to cultivate and attract high-level talents
- Strong governance systems and world-class innovation ecosystems
Xi Jinping also outlined five major tasks to achieve this goal:
- Leveraging China’s nationwide system to accelerate scientific self-reliance and strengthen coordination of resources and research forces
- Promoting deep integration between scientific innovation and industrial innovation to develop new quality productive forces, focusing on key areas like integrated circuits, AI, and quantum technology
- Comprehensively deepening reforms of scientific and technological systems to stimulate innovation and reduce bureaucratic burdens on researchers
- Advancing integrated development of education, science, and talent to build competitive advantages in human resources
- Practicing international openness and cooperation while coordinating security concerns and participating in global scientific governance
The speech concluded with a call for the entire nation to unite in pursuing the “grand goal of building a science and technology power” with only 11 years remaining until the 2035 target.
Xi’s vision is quite the contrast to the Trump Administration and its ongoing efforts to gut America’s science and technology research. Trump and his team might want to pay attention to what Xi is saying:
From Xi’s Qiushi speech –
… the world is undergoing changes unseen in a century that are accelerating, with technological revolution and great power competition intertwined, making high-technology fields the forefront and main battlefield of international competition, profoundly reshaping the global order and development pattern. Although China’s science and technology undertakings have made significant progress, original innovation capability is still relatively weak, some key core technologies are controlled by others, and top scientific and technological talents are insufficient. We must further enhance our sense of urgency, further increase efforts in scientific and technological innovation, and seize the commanding heights of technological competition and future development.
Bill again –
If someone can explain why Trump and his team want to destroy one of the key foundations of American strength, just as China is massively intensifying its efforts to catch up and then surpass the US, please educate us in the comments.
I don’t think anyone was able to educate Bill as requested. In 1781 when the British army surrendered to Washington at Yorktown, (purportedly) the British band played “The World Turned Upside Down.” I suggest we take a hint from prior remembered phrases – Remember the Maine! Remember Pearl Harbor! In years to come, people will say – though not with a positive frame – Remember 2025, when again the world turned upside down.
