For prior posts in this series, see Whither Xi? Whither CCP? Whither China?
Whither China post #6 – Question 4 - must China have democracy … or die?
the mantra – if p, then q
Democracy must come eventually. Once China reaches middle income status, the huge middle class, 200 or 300 million strong, concerned about the future and kids and education and health care and the environment, will demand democracy. Democracy may actually be on the arc of history. Countries other than the oil states that have achieved high level GDP per person have developed some version of democracy – think Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, even Singapore. China is at middle income to upper middle income status now, the income range when the transition is supposed to take place, according to historical experience. The next logical step for China is democracy. And without political reform, China will have (pick one or more) political revolt, growing crises of confidence, fissures within the Party. And without political reform and economic reform to further open the economy, future growth is in jeopardy.